Chapter 57 Trading Strategy Selection (Part 2)
In addition to overseas transactions, it is not convenient for him to do Bitcoin futures.
Recently, the Chinese government has defined all Bitcoin trading platforms in the country priced in RMB as illegal organizations (although the Bitcoin trading platform is illegal, individual Bitcoin trading is still legal).
Therefore, if Lu Yang wants to speculate on Bitcoin futures, he either takes the wild platform channel or uses the overseas platform to trade in US dollars. However, overseas channels also involve foreign exchange control issues, so it still doesn't work.
It's funny to say.
The reason why China defines all domestic Bitcoin trading platforms as illegal organizations is precisely because the currency disaster that caused Mao Xiaofei to almost go bankrupt was too bad.
In a sense, Lu Yang was cheated by Mao Xiaofei once again.
It seems that there are countless types of financial assets around the world, but in fact, there are not many choices left for Lu Yang.
"Chenxi, then set the trading products first in stocks, commodity futures, stock index futures, convertible bonds, and on-site funds. If the trading rights of qualified investors are opened in the future, the exchange's credit bonds can also be included. Do you think it is OK?"
Chenxi naturally had no objection, but then he raised another more important question:
"It's totally OK! What kind of risk-return characteristics do you want the quantitative trading strategy set by this mechanism to have? Or in other words, which aspect of the quantitative trading strategy is the most important to you?"
This issue of dawn is also very important.
Any trading strategy is risky. The so-called excellent trading strategy is nothing more than the risk and higher returns when other conditions remain unchanged.
But if there are two similarly excellent investment strategies now: one has smaller risks and lower returns; the other has greater risks and higher returns. In this case, which strategy to choose depends on the investor's own preferences.
After all, some people are born to be risky, while others just can't bear the losses.
What kind of strategy is the most appropriate thing is actually a matter of opinion.
Lu Yang had thought about this issue seriously a long time ago.
For him, certainty is the most important. Some gambling trading strategies have an annualized expected return rate of up to 10,000%, but there is a certain probability that they will go bankrupt as they play. Lu Yang certainly cannot accept this strategy. He only has one chance, and once he gets rid of it, he has no chance to make a comeback again.
A higher rate of return is definitely very important. After all, investing is to obtain high returns. When ensuring safety, the higher the rate of return, the better.
Now, Lu Yang needs to find the optimal balance between quantitative trading strategies’ profitability and risk!
After thinking for a long time, Lu Yang put forward his own requirements: "I cannot bear the risk, so certainty is the most important to me. You must grasp a relatively large quantitative trading strategy, and it is best to eliminate the possibility of losses in a complete year; the second important thing is the rate of return. When ensuring safety, the expected rate of return should be done as high as possible; as for short-term return fluctuations within one year, I can still bear it. Just try to control the short-term volatility on the basis of meeting the first two conditions. I will not force this!"
According to several requirements put forward by Lu Yang, Chenxi only calculated less than 0.001 seconds and formulated the corresponding trading strategy:
"After native calculations, a quantitative trading strategy that basically meets your requirements has been formulated: the annual expected return rate of this strategy is about 54%, the probability of an annual loss during a year's trading time is 0.07%, and the probability of irreparable losses is 0.0000001%, but the maximum fluctuation may be close to 30%. Will you implement this strategy immediately?"
It seems that Chenxi did not brag before. Such a powerful trading strategy is so strong that there are no friends on earth!
But after hearing this, Lu Yang frowned: "As the trading strategy you designed as a quantum computer artificial intelligence produced by Galaxy Federation, you only have this rate of return? This is much worse than I expected! I thought you could do it at least, and 100% of it would double my assets in a year!"
"First of all, this machine may have to use trading software on your computer to operate. This kind of personal trading terminal will have a certain delay, which makes it difficult for this machine to conduct ultra-high frequency trading.
Secondly, in the stock market with the largest capital capacity in China, there is a T1 trading mechanism: that is, the stocks bought today cannot be sold again today, which further limits the operating frequency of the machine.
Third, trading products that can conduct T0 transactions (after buying on the same day, they can be sold again on the same day) also have the problem of generally small capital capacity. For example, many small commodity futures contracts, convertible bonds with low attention, and forward contracts of some large commodity futures, their market transactions are very inactive. This leads to the fact that the historical trading information of these small product products is of little reference significance.
Fourth, many assets with inactive transactions but fluctuating greatly have significant signs of being manipulated by a certain person or institution in terms of transaction characteristics. Trading on assets that are ‘manually manipulated’ by a separate entity is a very risky operation, so it does not meet your requirements to ensure certainty of returns as much as possible.
Fifth, because you do not have a physical warehouse in your name and lack the ability to deliver spot goods, this machine cannot seize the opportunity of "futures and spot arbitrage" caused by the different price trends of the commodity spot market and commodity futures market.
Sixth, in order to prevent the risk of low-probability at the tail, the trading strategy designed by the machine must strictly control the leverage ratio to avoid irreparable permanent losses when market extremes occur.
Seventh, the relevant data of this quantitative trading strategy are calculated based on your current amount of funds. If your amount of funds increases further in the future, the expected rate of return of the strategy will further decrease.
Eighth, this machine is subject to hardware problems such as insufficient number of small reconnaissance robots and insufficient number of available computers. The ability to obtain information in a timely manner and the speed of transactions is severely limited.
Unless you can tolerate a greater degree of risk, the machine cannot further improve the expected rate of return on trading strategies under existing conditions.”
When Lu Yang heard the big row of reasons listed by Chenxi, he could not refute it.
These are indeed very realistic questions. It does not mean that if you have an alien supercomputer, you can become the god of the capital market.
If you want to become the true god of the capital market, unless you can directly access Chenxi to the human Internet, you have no idea how to do this.
Chenxi is just an artificial intelligence responsible for managing "passing through computers". The database stores information related to interstellar travel. It does not store manufacturing knowledge such as "How to build a Galaxy Federation quantum computer and Earth electronic computer to interface", nor does it have any high-end manufacturing capabilities.
Chapter completed!