Chapter 45 The Order of War
Japan's wishful thinking was indeed a good fight, killing two birds with one stone.
However, perhaps it did not expect the Middle Easterners to jump out to play with him, and even invited a group of tycoons who eat people and don't spit bones to participate. Or perhaps these were planned long ago to avenge the 1995 revenge of these tycoons, and only they themselves knew about the little ninety-nine.
In 1995, when the Sumitomo Consortium was operating LME copper, it was attacked by giants led by Robertson's Tiger Fund and Soros' Quantum Fund, and the Sumitomo Consortium suffered heavy losses.
Li Wen knocked on the table, but did not explain Japan's motives, saying: "We don't have to pay attention to the purpose of Japan's short selling. Whether it is a trap, and we will test it out on our own market. Let's discuss whether we should participate, which party should participate, and how much profit can we make if we participate."
Zhao Qingmei is an analyst, and her opinion is very important: "This week, the price of crude oil has risen slightly. Yesterday, the New York Stock Exchange closed at $24.35 per barrel, up $0.9 from $23.45 per barrel on Monday, attracting many small institutions and retail investors to enter the market. Today is May 5th, and it has been 4 days since their secret meeting. I analyzed the position fluctuations in the past few days and found that the fixed positions of longs are slowly increasing. I judge that Tiger Fund may have mixed in these small institutions to build positions and buy contracts."
Zhou Zhenyu rubbed his temples and said, "$25 per barrel is a very worthy price. If Julian Robertson and others have decided to fight against Japanese men, they should come out to build positions and reduce costs. But they have been playing around in this market for several years, and they have already mastered their skills. It is easy to cover up the establishment of positions. If they don't launch, we can't figure out whether they have participated. If they wait for them to start the market, it will be too late to participate."
Chen Shaofeng said carefully: "When a big crocodile fights, fish and shrimps die first. The funds of the two major forces may exceed 1 trillion US dollars. With other small and medium-sized institutions and forces who want to find troubled waters, the total amount of funds may reach as high as 200 million US dollars. If such a capital is matched, the market fluctuations are so fierce that we small funds can not afford."
The account funds of Huofeng Investment Company are 1 billion US dollars, but of which 500 million US dollars are already placed on CNOOC. That is to say, if Huofeng Investment wants to participate in this crude oil battle, the funds it can use are only 500 million US dollars, 500 million US dollars. Compared with the total market, it is not so easy to get a piece of the pie.
The crude oil contract is 1,000 barrels per lot, and the margin coefficient is 1%. When the price of each barrel changes by 1 USD, the value of its 1 lot contract changes by as much as USD 1,000.
Chen Shaofeng’s meaning is very obvious. In such a fierce market, Huofeng Investment should not participate in it and cannot withstand the violent fluctuations in the market.
Li Wenzhi Chen Shaofeng was more worried about the capital issue and ignored him. Instead, he turned to Zhou Zhenyu. Zhou Zhenyu was a trader. The trader's opinions were the most important. They were the leaders of the entire team: "Zhou Zhenyu, your opinions?"
"According to the current intelligence analysis, the Japanese side is about to complete its layout, and the Japanese side has not covered up much. I estimate that the short orders held by the Japanese side account for 25% of the total short order, up to more than 10 million hands, and the funds used have been nearly 3 billion US dollars. If Japan is given time to complete its cost control and its strong financial support, even if Tiger Fund wants to move, they cannot move. So, if Tiger Fund really wants to move Japan, it will be next week. Perhaps today, this position is the best sniper position."
A margin of $3 billion is nothing. What’s scary is that its holdings, 10 million lots, changes in the price of a dollar are a floating profit and loss of $10 billion.
Li Wen asked: "Do you mean wait?"
Zhou Zhenyu said: "Well, it's too risky to participate now. Tiger Fund is just our guess and has no basis. We don't know whether Tiger Fund will really go against the Japanese side. Even if it goes against each other, Tiger Fund may not win. But we can't stand on the side of Japan, because the Japanese side's actions are a bit swaggering, and maybe they will be encircled at any time. Although most forces are unwilling to offend the six major Japanese consortiums, in the face of interests, there are many people who are not afraid of death. In short, I suggest waiting for it first or not participating this time."
Indeed, with such a huge amount of capital, any small mistake will die without a burial place. Don’t think about being able to take advantage of the situation. If you can’t control your position well, one-day fluctuations can kick you out.
Recalling the large merger and crude oil trends of the Bank of Japan at the end of the year and next year, Li Wen said in a deep voice: "Suppose we have to participate now and stand in a multi-party way. How long does it take for you to enter the market? I mean, we can't let the Japanese side discover us."
Li Wen knew that his appearance had affected the Japanese side to a certain extent. He was not sure whether the market would have an unexpected shocking reversal in this battle. After thinking about it, he finally decided to participate in it in moderation to see if he could give Japan a fatal blow at a critical moment to eliminate the accident.
Chen Shaofeng and the others looked at each other, not understanding why Li Wen had to participate. Although if he stood in the right direction, the profit would be quite considerable at that time, if he stood in the wrong direction, he would lose all his money. Although doing finance is similar to gambling, it would be almost the same. They all expressed their attitude just now, but now the boss insisted on doing it, so of course the worker had to bite the bullet. Zhou Zhenyu said: "If our funds are operated through dispersed accounts, the Japanese side would not find it."
Li Wen was stunned and understood what Zhou Zhenyu said - Boss, you have too little money, so others don't bother to pay attention to you. You don't have to worry about 50 million US dollars. I guess you can only use 10 million US dollars to build a position. At the current price, 10 million US dollars can buy about 40,000 contracts and 40,000 contracts. As long as you jump 1 US dollars, the profit and loss change will be 40 million US dollars, but it cannot withstand too long. At the same time, 40,000 contracts are indeed in the eyes of the Japanese side.
Li Wen said slowly: "You don't have to pay attention to the capital matter. You just need to tell me how confident you are to build a position of $500 million and not let any force in the market find out, how long will it take to complete it? If you go in now, how much will the position cost be?"
Li Wen calculated the accounts in his heart, at the current price, he could build a position of about 2 million lots and 2 million lots. The price of each change of USD is 2 billion USD. Even if the market is no longer as it was in memory, the 10 billion USD in his hand is enough to change USD 5. If Japan can really put the price down by another $5 per barrel, Li Wen had to accept the output and start over.
The most important thing is that Li Wen firmly believed that in the face of such a piece of fat meat, Julian Robertson, who eats people and does not spit bones, would not be moved.
Chen Shaofeng suddenly stood up, looked at Li Wen in surprise, and said, "Boss, do you want to build a position for all the company's money?"
Li Wen shook his head and said, "You don't need to know this for the time being. You just need to give me the answers to the questions just now."
Seeing Li Wen insisting, everyone had to turn their attention to Zhou Zhenyu. Zhou Zhenyu pondered for a while before slowly saying: "US$500 million can build a position of about 2 million. According to the current situation, even if a position of 2 million is passed through a dispersed account, it is not impossible to completely cover up. It can be done by setting up multiple dispersed accounts and doing some complicated methods, but the procedures are a little more troublesome."
The most feared thing about the financial industry is that it is seen from entering and entering the market, especially when big moves are leaked, it is easy to be surrounded by big players who come here. Therefore, people in the industry have some means to conceal the positions they use to make profits.
Li Wen stood up, looked at the following table, and said in a deep voice: "I have decided to participate in this crude oil transaction. You are all veterans in this industry and you all know the rules. It is 10:30 noon now, and I will prepare for you 12 hours. I will report to my villa at 10:00 tonight and wait for the arrangements. By the way, this action may take a long time, so you must be mentally prepared. If you have any questions, please raise them now."
In the financial industry, some major actions are carried out in closed places. On the one hand, they avoid being distracted by various accidents; on the other hand, they avoid some unnecessary leaks, and everyone in the industry is aware of these.
Everyone looked at each other, stunned by Li Wen's decisiveness. After a while of silence, they all said there was no problem.
"Since it's okay, let's see you tonight... you don't have to send me off." After Li Wen said that, he stopped everyone from seeing you off, and then stood up and left, leaving behind a few people with big eyes.
Ignoring Chen Shaofeng and others' reactions behind him, and after returning to the villa, Li Wen immediately called Huo Tianxing and asked him for a villa. None of them, the rich man, did not have one or two villas for having an affair with a celebrity.
Without asking what to do, Huo Tianxing was very happy to give an address that was also located in the shallow water. Then the two of them argued about the villa where Li Wen is now living for a long time before they closed the line.
After getting the address, Li Wen and others rushed there immediately, but it was not very far away. The villa had already received the notice and asked about their identity, and handed over the key to Li Wen and the others. After receiving the big red envelope sent by Li Wen, these happy old mothers, cooks and gardeners packed their luggage and went home for vacation.
After observing the land shape, Chen Qingyun and the others started to set up security settings. When they finished their work, it was already eight o'clock in the evening. The villa was equipped with ingredients. Li Wen, who was idle, cooked eight dishes and soup. Li Wen had good skills and ate a few big fingers. These were all researches when he was alone in his previous life.
After dinner, I returned to the villa called Plum Garden by Li Wen but did not have a single plum blossom waiting for Chen Shaofeng and the others.
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Chapter completed!