"You are right, right?" Xiao Yan glared at Lin Zheng angrily, but the next second, she smiled, "But I think that real estate can really be done. Now the average price of newly opened properties on the East Third Ring Road has reached 4,500. When I left yesterday, I saw an advertisement for a community called Nanxinyuan. The average price starts at 4,800 yuan per square meter. The price of second-hand houses is almost 3,800 to 4,200. If this trend continues, it will increase to 10,000 by 2000."

"It rose to 10,000 in 2000?" Lin Zheng thought for a while, shook his head and said, "Don't think about residential buildings. They can't rise so quickly. I estimate that by 2000, they will only increase by 50% from the current basis."

"That's just a little bit?" Xiao Yan frowned, "The housing prices are rising very quickly now."

Lin Zheng laughed and cried, "Commercial real estate such as office buildings and shops are not the same as commercial housing such as residential buildings. The capital is the political and cultural center of our country. It must be accompanied by a highly developed commodity economy. The prosperity of commerce will inevitably drive the prosperity of commercial real estate, but commercial housing is another matter."

Can he say that only the iron-blooded prime minister industrialized real estate and education after he came to power, and that the capital's housing prices were soaring? If he remembered correctly, it seems that the housing prices between the East Third Ring Road and the Fourth Ring Road were only between 5,500 and 6,500 in 2000. The housing prices in some communities could rise to around 7,500. Compared with the current housing prices, it only increased by 80% in five years. This is not a big deal, but compared with residential buildings, the housing prices of commercial office buildings and shops have risen significantly. In 5 years, it has increased by nearly twice.

In 10 years, a partner from the capital came to Huaqiangbei to find Lin Zheng and talked about the housing prices in the capital. When he talked about this issue, the guy regretted it. He grew up in the capital. According to him, in 2000, he bought a 115-square-meter house between the Third Ring Road and the Fourth Ring Road in the Northeast. It was 5,600 square meters, and the location was quite good. There were seven or eight universities within a 3-kilometer range. Next to his home was a 211 university. You can take a walk on the campus every morning and evening, which was quiet and green. Until the beginning of 2006, the houses in their community were only about 7,000 square meters. In terms of the capital, the price was definitely not cheap, but it was not too much.

But by the end of 2006 and early 2007, housing prices rose significantly. By June 2007, housing prices had soared to 15,000 per square meter, and the prices of shops and office buildings were naturally even more outrageous.

Why did Lin Zheng remember so clearly? Because the partner in the capital once regretted that he beat his chest and stamped his feet. In the second year of his purchase, there were still some houses in the community that had not been sold out. This guy wanted to exchange their 115-square-meter house for a house that had not been sold on the 24th floor of the community, with an area of ​​200 square meters.

At that time, the situation in that community was that the market price of the 15th floor house where he was located was 7,200 yuan per square meter, and the market price of the 24th floor house was 7,800 yuan per square meter. The real estate developer proposed an exchange plan. The two houses each calculated the total price, and then the total price was reduced. Finally, the real estate developer made the difference of more than 700,000 yuan. It was the more than 700,000 yuan that made the guy hesitate. When the house price soared to 15,000 yuan per square meter in the second half of 2007, the buddy regretted it and wanted to hit the wall. In the words of this guy, "I knew it was like this, I bought it too hard."

Everyone knows what the housing price in the imperial capital is. Lin Zheng thought that he would never have the ability to buy a house near the Third Ring Road of the imperial capital in his life, so he naturally had no idea. He just laughed at this guy: "You are a full man, don't you know that the hungry man is hungry, do you know how many people are still trying hard to save down payment for a 50-square-meter small house in the imperial capital?"

Xiao Yan naturally doesn't know this, but she also has her own reasons. "You said that, this government is all about how to make the economy soft landing... The countries in Southeast Asia are about to develop."

"Huh? How did you say this?" Lin Zheng's heart moved slightly and asked calmly, "I think the economic development of Southeast Asian countries is very good."

"I don't understand this?" Xiao Yan glanced at Lin Zheng, "It is because the economy of Southeast Asian countries is developing too fast that they are in trouble."

Have the upper classes of the country realized that the Southeast Asian financial crisis is approaching? But, the government of a big country must have a long-term vision. Although the current economic situation of those countries in Southeast Asia is booming, the inherent defects of their financial and economic structure have probably been analyzed by various think tanks above.

Resisting the shock in his heart, Lin Zheng asked Xiao Yan tentatively, "What do you mean is... the pig is fattened, should it be almost time to kill it?"

"It's basically what it means," Xiao Yan said casually without doubting him, "But there is only so much I can know. When can it be shown, it's not something I can know."

"If this is the case..." Lin Zheng was silent for a moment, and finally said slowly, "It should be the period before the second half of 1997 to April 1998."

"Huh? Why do you say that?" Xiao Yan looked at Lin Zheng in surprise. He knew that a serious economic crisis would break out in Southeast Asia in about three to five years, but he only knew that Lin Zheng could guess the exact time of the outbreak?

But if this kid's analysis was well-founded, Xiao Yan became excited: there would be too many articles that could be done.

"Do you remember last year, against the background of the widespread Asian economy, the famous American economist Paul Robin Krugman wrote an article in Diplomacy to criticize the development model of the Asian economy, believing that relying solely on large investment without technological innovation and efficiency can easily form a bubble economy. In the period of rapid development and prosperity, there are already profound crises lurking, and sooner or later large-scale adjustments will enter. He believes that the adjustment spontaneously made by the market will not be long."

"Have you read the article by Krugman?" Xiao Yan was really shocked as much as he was: As a young economist in his early 40s, Krugman has not had a reputation in China. There are not many Chinese people who know this person. Lin Zheng not only read his article, but seems to agree with this article very much?

"See it." Lin Zheng nodded.

"Can you tell me something? I'm quite curious."

"No problem. It's mainly a comment on the current economic development of Asian countries. It believes that the current Asian economy development relies on a large amount of investment. Many companies operate in debt and the industrial structure is not reasonable enough. This has caused the inflow of foreign capital, which will bring about a very serious problem: a large proportion of corporate debt is priced in foreign currencies."

"The company's debt is priced in foreign currency?" Xiao Yan thought for a moment, and finally nodded, "You continue to say."

"After corporate debt is priced in foreign currencies, it will bring about a new problem, or a problem that is not a problem: foreign capital will be exchanged for the currency of the country after it flows into these countries. When the country's economic scale is not large enough to absorb and dilute these foreign capitals sufficiently, it will cause the country's currency exchange rate to rise."

"As Asian countries have close ties with the US government during their development process and have special relations, the government needs to maintain the stability of the exchange rate between the local currency and the US dollar, which requires increasing the supply of local currency, but it has caused credit expansion."

"This situation is certainly not what the government wants to see. The only means the government can take is to regain its own currency, but the fiscal situation of these countries is not good. If the government wants to regain its own currency, the only way for the government to regain its own currency is to sell bonds and other methods. A new problem arises: the interest rate of the local currency will increase accordingly. At this time, the expansion of interest rate spreads at home and abroad has caused a larger inflow of foreign capital, so credit continues to expand."

"At this time, if the fixed exchange rate between the local currency and the US dollar is interrupted, this kind of credit expansion can be curbed, but the appreciation of the local currency will undoubtedly reduce the country's exports and further affect business confidence. For these governments, this situation is definitely not what they want to see, so they can only allow this kind of credit to continue to expand. To put it simply, they can now be considered to be drinking poison to quench thirst, because the crisis is already very close at this time... Paul Robin Krugman predicts that this situation will happen between 1995 and 1996, and in fact, some signs can be seen now."

"It makes sense." Xiao Yan lowered her head and pondered for a long time, finally nodded, and signaled Lin Zheng to continue talking.

"The continued expansion of credit has led to further increase in investment and imports and an increase in wage levels. The increase in wage levels has led to a decrease in export growth rate, resulting in a large trade deficit. At this time, in order to ease the trade deficit, the best way is to directly use foreign loans for imports instead of being converted into currency and credit."

"The expansion of the trade deficit and the instability of the market will only bring a problem to these economically outgoing countries, which is also fatal: it makes investors lose confidence in the country's currency. At this time, foreign capital will no longer flow in large quantities, and the local currency will begin to depreciate... This is already the eve of the outbreak of the economic crisis."

"For the government, there are actually not many choices at this time. Either sell the US dollar or significantly raise interest rates to maintain the stability of the exchange rate between the local currency and the US dollar. But the next moment, the foreign exchange reserves of these countries are not enough to support selling the US dollar to maintain the exchange rate of the local currency. Raising interest rates may cause the investment bubble to burst. At this time, the local currency cannot maintain a fixed exchange rate with the US dollar, and depreciation occurs: high-level equilibrium has turned to low-level equilibrium, which is actually an economic crisis and the market begins to automatically equilibrium." (To be continued...)
Chapter completed!