Chapter 536 Rubber
The rough development route of the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was to start from Thailand and then go south to Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.[][].[23][wx].[].[]
In just half a year, the financial storm spread throughout Southeast Asia. The so-called four Asian dragons and four tigers all trembled in the face of this hurricane. Any country that implements a free economic system will collapse immediately where Soros's eyes focus. For the first time in the world, finance has shown its huge destructive power, no less than war.
After sweeping Southeast Asia, they continued to move north. Soros' next target was originally Hong Kong, but unfortunately he finally returned in failure. Then he turned to Japan and South Korea, and finally influenced Russia. Even Japan, the world's second-largest economy, seemed in danger under the impact of this wave. In the end, if the US government had not come forward to protect Japan, it would be difficult to predict what would happen.
After just one round, the economic development dividends of East Asia in the past decade have evaporated. Of course, this is not accurate. Due to China's strict domestic supervision of foreign investment and narrow financial investment channels, Soros and others have no good opportunity to attack China. Coupled with the head-on blow in the Hong Kong market, Soros and others have not actually gained any benefits from China.
This somewhat makes the so-called "Asian financial crisis" unworthy of its name. Without China's "Asia" is still called Asia?
It’s like someone is excluding Russia’s Siberia from launching a war. Can that be called the Siberian War? This Asian financial crisis should actually be called the Southeast Asian financial crisis, which is probably more accurate.
Of course, this does not mean that the Asian financial crisis has no impact on China. To be honest, it actually has a great impact.
First of all, it can be seen that the financial crisis swept away most of China's neighbors from south to north. In the long run, it provided an external basis for China to open up the first island chain blockade, and of course this is far from it.
Recently, some projects that originally planned to invest in Southeast Asia may have gone to South America or Eastern Europe. Some of them have also flowed into China.
More recently, China's foreign investment quota has been affected. After the Asian financial crisis, China's foreign investment, which had been growing rapidly, remained flat for five consecutive years or even declined. Although Southeast Asian capital has evaded its own economic environment, it has reduced a large part of it due to foreign exchange ratios.
In addition, the political situation and social turmoil of neighboring countries around China, the political system of Thailand regressed, and the military government came to power. What happened in Indonesia... Forget it, let alone Indonesia.
Japan began its decade of disappearance, but instead took a path for South Korea to occupy the international market.
This economic crisis has indirectly provided strong support for Putin's coming to power and his policies.
So it is difficult to say that the impact of this crisis on China is to seek profit and harm. Although Zhou Shuo reminded Director Lang very early, he could not guess how the country considers it.
Tian Guodong's appearance somewhat excited him, which shows that the country did not completely hold a non-interference opinion, but chose to interfere with a limited extent.
On the one hand, I may want to gain more benefits in this crisis, but on the other hand, I am worried that such a thing will happen to me. It is hard to say that China's foreign exchange hunger will be scared by Soros in the future.
Tian Guodong stayed in the famous Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles for a week, but he had almost never been to any of the attractions in Los Angeles. His daily job was to get up from the hotel room, then go straight to the large client room specially provided by Huamei Bank for Zhou Shuo, and stay for a whole day. Then he went back to the hotel room to rest.
The seemingly boring itinerary did not erase his enthusiasm at all, but instead made his spirit more and more excited.
Nothing else, if any banking person can enter that spacious conference room, he will look like this - whether he is from China or the United States.
For a banking industry insider, seeing money is not new. No matter how big it is, no matter how much money it is, it is just a number in their eyes. But it is different for Tian Guodong. As the manager of the Foreign Exchange Department of the Bank of China, he felt a little dizzy these two days.
Too much, too much money to see! There are millions of dollars flowing in this room every moment. It would be fine if this money was gathered by countless depositors, but tens of billions of dollars are all a young man in front of him, a young man under 30 years old!
This world is simply crazy.
Seeing that under Zhou Shuo's order, traders and financial economists who were seconded from Huamei Bank continued to snowball the scale of funds. Tian Guodong felt that the air he was breathing had a little sweetness, which was the smell of US dollar ink!
In just one week, Zhou Shuo's assets reached US$22 billion. The principal obtained from mortgage loans and sale of some assets was also more than US$6 billion.
Fanhan Group can now be said to be gambled on everything about itself.
What a pity that Zhou Shuo is not Soros, and the relationship network run by Pang Zhou cannot be considered completely in the financial industry. Otherwise, like Soros, he can use various financial derivatives and high leverage to leverage dozens of times of capital.
In 1997, the entire Quantum Fund had only billions of dollars in its hands, but through these financial means, it easily expanded its capital by dozens of times. Waving a sledgehammer of hundreds of billions of dollars, this opened the door to the Southeast Asian financial system. Otherwise, even if you know that the Thais' economic system is unhealthy, you can only see it if you change to other countries.
Zhou Shuo does not have such convenience benefits. Investment banks will not trust him, ordinary American banks will not provide him with long-term lending, and financial brokerage companies will not provide him with high-multiple leverage business. All the ammunition he needs to attack needs to be raised bit by bit.
$22 billion is now barely enough.
Of course, not all of this money is placed in Thailand. Today's Thai government is like a hedgehog, extremely nervous about all abnormal capital flows. Banks no longer provide the business of lending Thai baht, significantly increasing interest rates, and overnight interest rates directly increased from the original 10 cents to 1,500 cents.
Although Thailand is strong on the outside but dry on the inside, not everyone can easily knock on the hard shell to eat the fresh and tender delicious food inside.
Although I had been preparing to enter the market for a long time and had taken the opportunity to throw out some short orders of Thai baht. However, this part of the funds only used more than 2 billion US dollars, and with some financial tools used, it was barely a fraction of the time.
After Soros takes action, it will be too late. But how will Zhou Shuo enter Thailand with the remaining 20 billion yuan?
In response to Thailand's severe measures against the financial market, Zhou Shuo chose another path - the futures market. In addition to the most obvious Thai stock index futures, the one that Zhou Shuo has high expectations is Singapore's rubber futures market.
By 1997, rubber prices had been sluggish for more than two years. At the beginning of the year, Thailand, as the world's largest exporter of natural rubber, adjusted its rubber protection price. It rose from 23 baht/kg to 28 baht/kg, which triggered a new round of growth in rubber futures.
Since May, short orders of large scale have been continuously emerging in the Singapore rubber futures market. Of course, under the premise that the market prospects are basically optimistic, these short orders have not actually affected the price of natural rubber.
The rubber futures in the Singapore rubber market are calculated in units of Thai baht, but what flows behind it is still US dollars. Pang Zhou, following Zhou Shuo's instructions, exchanged the Thai baht obtained from buying short orders into US dollars, and waited for the US dollar to appreciate and used part of the funds to buy Thai baht and then close the position. This is Zhou Shuo's idea.
Yes, the Thai government has only a pitiful $30 billion, which is enough for Soros and a group of financial tycoons behind him to swallow it? Zhou Shuo thought about it and decided not to compete with this fund, but to take a unique approach. In the international rubber market, I think there will be more short-term games between the US dollar and rubber.
Who would have thought that the rubber futures market, which is obviously a steady rise, would have unexpected disasters? After all, international rubber speculators are a bit far apart from Wall Street financiers.
"Mr. Pang, you are here, please sit down!" Andy and Liu smiled and asked Pang Zhou to sit on the chair of the big class, and served a cup of tea with great enthusiasm.
I heard that Pang Zhou is a famous investor in the United States and has many famous high-tech companies under his command. However, in Andy Liu's eyes, Pang Zhou's mental and capable appearance is clearly a sweet and attractive big cake. Since May, although he has not made a penny in the rubber futures he operates on his behalf, he has made money just by passing the handling fee and wants to faint.
In the past few years, Pang Zhou's spirit has become more and more fierce. He picked up the teacup and drank a sip of tea. Then he heard Andy Liu standing beside him ask: "Mr. Pang, I don't know how you plan to arrange your operating strategy today?"
"Like yesterday, we continue to buy short orders in rubber futures. As long as short orders above 33 baht, we will buy all of them."
"all?"
Andy and Liu were slightly stunned. Pang Zhou's past operations were not all, but some of them were chosen to buy. Rubber futures are not a small plate. If you buy short orders with all your might, it will be a terrifying number. Such operations are more likely to arouse hostility from the big players in the market and then conduct opposite operations.
"Well, all." Pang Zhou's face was very calm, and he just repeated his orders.
Then he covered the corner of his mouth with a teacup and smiled slightly.
Chapter completed!