Chapter 1081 Di Qiuren's suggestion
Chen Kangjie's trip to Hong Kong does not mean that he will stay in Hong Kong to command and deal with the blocking battle. This will not take one or two days, and it will last for a month. Chen Kangjie will not be able to stay in Hong Kong for a whole month.
When he went to Hong Kong, on the one hand, he was to visit the front line to experience the atmosphere. More importantly, he wanted to unite a group of local entrepreneurs who were truly ahead to charge and gather more strength.
Chen Kangjie still has to arrange for the command base camp to build the city, and his office in the New World Center is the command center.
In order to ensure smooth and safe command, based on the original external contact information, COY, Warwick Software Company and General Staff Intelligence Bureau personnel who are branded as cybersecurity companies are working together to install ten computers for Chen Kangjie and set up communication lines connecting high-level departments. Through these computers, Chen Kangjie can observe changes in various financial markets in Hong Kong in real time. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's daily information notification will also be sent here, but they think it is just sent to the capital.
After arriving in Hong Kong by a special plane, Chen Kangjie went directly to Sun Jicai's old villa in Wuwu Village, Yuen Long. No one came to pick him up. Sun Jicai sold the old house in order to raise 7 million Hong Kong dollars in charity funds, but he was secretly bought by Ouyang Zhenhua at a low price.
Chen Kangjie wants to meet Han Geng, Ouyang Zhenhua and Di Qiuren who came from Japan here. This place is very remote in Hong Kong and will not attract attention.
At the entrance of the villa yard, Ouyang Zhenhua led the two of them to wait there.
After Di Qiuren helped to open the car door from outside, Chen Kangjie stepped out of the car. Before the formal conversation, there was a warm greeting. Chen Kangjie and Ouyang Zhenhua often met, but it was not common for Han Geng and Di Qiuren to be with him.
As soon as he entered the door, Chen Kangjie saw a delicate copper hot pot with chimney placed on the round table in the hall. There was a charcoal fire below, and the fragrant heat was rolling. There were hearty side dishes and seasonings placed around it, including shrimp slices, abalone, sheep's hoof, foie gras, frosted beef, oysters, geoduck, tender lamb slices and several wild vegetables. It can be said that it is a combination of Hong Kong-style hot pot and northern flavor.
"Brother Ouyang, you are making me miss that Sun Jicai, and actually made a hot pot waiting for me." Chen Kangjie sat down in the main seat with a big golden knife, and said with a mouth-watering look at the delicious food on the table.
"Sun Jicai doesn't know where he has gone now. The main reason is that they have not eaten hot pot for a long time, and they know that you will be hungry when you get off the plane, so they can just have a table, just eat and chat," Ouyang Zhenhua pointed at Han Geng and Di Qiuren and sat down.
"Sit down, you're sitting there, there's nothing to be reserved. We'd just eat first, it's really a little hungry." Chen Kangjie reached out and pressed Han Geng and Di Qiuren, then picked up the chopsticks and took the lead in doing it.
Although Chen Kangjie said he should not be restrained, his seats were still in order. Ouyang Zhenhua sat on Chen Kangjie's left hand. Our traditional culture has always emphasized the respect of the left hand, while Han Geng sat on his right hand, and only Di Qiuren was at the bottom and faced with Chen Kangjie.
During this meeting, Liu Deyi did not come with him. He went to Feiyang Entertainment Company to handle the matter. The other bodyguards were scattered outdoors, and only Xiong Ziqiang guarded the door.
This is the first time Di Qiuren met with Chen Kangjie on such an occasion. This time he came mainly to report the situation and suggested that Chen Kangjie allow them to take some measures in the Japanese market and South Korean market.
After eating Xilihulu for half an hour, Chen Kangjie's forehead began to sweat. The other three were Ouyang Zhenhua better, while Han Geng's temples were wet. Although there were only four people and the room space was large enough, he couldn't stand it. At this time, it was still summer in Hong Kong. Even if everyone only wore shirts and opened doors and windows to ventilate, it was not very useful. The power of hot pot was still very powerful.
"Old Di, let me introduce it. What's going on in Japan?" Chen Kangjie put down his chopsticks, wiped his forehead with a prepared wet towel, picked up the tea and took a sip. After he felt relieved, he asked Di Qiuren.
"Affected by the outside world, the Japanese market is also somewhat unstable. Recently, the foreign exchange market and stock market have fluctuated to varying degrees. In the past three years, due to our blow and multiple influences from other factors, the Bank of Japan pursued a low interest rate policy in order to prevent deflation, which is a godsend opportunity for those who want to participate in foreign exchange arbitrage transactions. Since the end of 1994, the interest rate spread between the U.S. federal funds rate and the target interest rate of the Japanese Bank of Japan was about 5%, while the yen flowing to Southeast Asia at that time was flowing to the Japanese yen at that time.
The rough estimate of overseas loans is US$260 billion, which means that the average interest rate spread of yen foreign exchange arbitrage transactions is about US$13 billion per year, which is US$39 billion in three years. During the same period, the yen depreciated by nearly half compared with the US dollar. In this way, the average exchange rate of overseas loans of US$260 billion is US$130 billion. Conservatively estimated that investors in yen arbitrage transactions have obtained US$169 billion in three years. "Pie falling from the sky"" Di Qiuren put down his chopsticks, touched his lips and said.
"You mean that the Asian financial crisis is closely related to Japan." Chen Kangjie raised his eyebrows and asked calmly.
"Yes, due to the large inflow of Japanese yen capital into Southeast Asian countries, emerging markets have fatal hidden dangers of "doublemi**atch". One is the mismatch of "short-term borrowing and long-term investment" in Southeast Asian markets, and the other is the mismatch of "loaning for foreign exchange (USD or Japanese yen) and investing in their own currencies". That is to say, there is a bad lender and a bad borrower, both sides are wrong. The inherent reason for the Asian financial crisis is that Southeast Asian countries do not have good national risk management. Japanese banks withdraw loans from this region based on their own reasons, causing most of the capital outflows in Southeast Asian regions, which is the fuse of the Asian financial crisis," Di Qiuren nodded and explained with affirmative explanation.
Chen Kangjie knew that the financial crisis had occurred, and he also knew the process and results of the occurrence, but Chen Kangjie had never carefully studied the reasons before. Now, after Di Qiuren, who had a doctoral background in economics, Chen Kangjie not only became interested, but also became a little enlightened.
"You keep talking," Chen Kangjie encouraged Di Qiuren.
"The Japanese banking industry encountered big troubles due to huge domestic non-performing loans, and the question began to appear in March 1995. At that time, two credit unions in Tokyo exposed more than $1 billion in bad debts, most of which were loans to real estate companies. These very fragile regional banks and credit unions were linked to the large "main banking system" through the "main banking system". When small banks went bankrupt, large banks also began to suffer. The decline of the Japanese economy and the Japanese yen exchange rate from 1996 to 1997 had a huge negative impact on the entire banking system." Di Qiuren was encouraged and took a look at Han Geng and continued.
"Japanese real estate has been suppressed by us, and we are the culprits," Han Geng added.
Chen Kangjie pondered for a while and slowly spoke, "50% of the capital of the Japanese banking industry is secondary capital, mainly including the unrealized value of the stock portfolio. Therefore, they have to bear two opposite pressures. On the one hand, due to the economic slowdown, foreign investors withdraw their capital due to the weakening of the yen, and the stock price fell between 1996 and 1997; on the other hand, the weak yen increased the value of the yen loans. Both factors weakened the ability of Japanese banks to reach an 8% capital adequacy ratio. To meet the capital adequacy ratio requirements, the only way is to reduce overseas loans."
Although he has been with Chen Kangjie for a long time and has taken them to make a lot of money many years ago, Di Qiuren is still very impressed by Chen Kangjie's ability to tell the problem after giving a point. It is completely right for him to say that, because he is always in Japan, and his job is to study Japan's economy and financial markets to provide opportunities to crack down. Chen Kangjie took a long time to go to Japan, so it is even more valuable.
Staring at Chen Kangjie with a respectful look, Di Qiuren took Chen Kangjie's words, "According to our assessment, if the yen is maintained at 140 to 1 against the US dollar and the stock market remains at 15,000 points, then Japanese banks need to reduce loans of 5.6 trillion yen, which is equivalent to 11% of Japan's GDP. If domestic loans are not cut, they will only cut loans abroad. Although there is no detailed data yet, we speculate that starting from January last year, Japan's loan reduction has been at least 100 billion US dollars from Southeast Asia. It is the withdrawal of Japanese banks that have created a sharp credit tightening in Southeast Asia."
"OK, I understand. Your idea is that we should take over the 100 billion US dollars that Japan has obtained from Southeast Asia, right?" Chen Kangjie said cleverly.
"Yes, that's what it means. If we can do something in Japan, Japan will withdraw funds from Southeast Asia in large quantities. They can at least withdraw a total of 250 billion yuan from Southeast Asia. This is the era when big fish eat small fish and small fish eat shrimp. If Japan accelerates withdrawal, Southeast Asian countries will make things worse," Di Qiuren said firmly.
Chen Kangjie pondered again. What Di Qiuren saw might be all the economic part, and Chen Kangjie thought about the content of politics.
A sweeping financial crisis in Southeast Asia will definitely rescue it, otherwise it will spread. At least the International Monetary Fund will definitely perform. In this context, if Japan does the opposite and accelerates its withdrawal, it will inevitably get into political affair with Southeast Asian countries, which is equivalent to taking advantage of others' danger.
Chapter completed!