Chapter 83 Offshore Balancer
In Europe, the United Kingdom has always played an extremely special and crucial role.
Historically, Britain was rarely regarded as a European country, and more often played the role of "Balancer of European Power".
For example, before the 19th century, Britain's main policy was to curb France and prevent France from becoming the only powerful country on the European continent. During the Napoleonic period, Britain's policy reached its peak. Its long-term strategic blockade and the active formation of an anti-French alliance were the main factors that subverted the Napoleonic dynasty. During the French-Prussian War, Britain's influence could not be ignored. However, after Prussia unified Germany, Britain's European continent strategy quietly changed and no longer focused on anti-French, but
Mainly curbing Germany. In a sense, both world wars were related to Britain's policy toward Germany. The root of World War I was that Britain contained Germany, which led to Germany having to expand its living space through war. World War II itself was the continuation of World War I, and the fundamental contradiction was also the strong suppression of Britain, which left Germany no choice for survival. [bsp; It can be said that for hundreds of years, Britain has been the "offshore balancer" of the European continent.
This basic policy ensures that Britain has been the world's number one power for more than two hundred years, and inevitably keeps Britain away from Europe.
With the crown of the "Empire that the Sun Never Set" fading, the situation in Britain is not so ideal.
In the Western national order dominated by the United States, Britain's role was very embarrassing. After World War II, Britain faced a very critical choice, namely, whether to integrate into Europe or rely on the United States. Affected by the war, especially the serious national crisis after the war, Britain chose the latter.
It was also from this time that Britain gradually became disconnected from the European continent.
Although Britain was still a European country in decades after the war, especially during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, and its position in NATO was second only to the United States, and also made important contributions to the establishment and development of the EU during this period, in most cases, Britain played not a positive role but a negative role in the EU. In the eyes of some French, German, and Italians, Britain was more like the spokesperson of the United States in the EU.
In fact, this is completely understandable.
For the UK, it is more difficult to integrate into the EU than relying on the US, because in terms of historical and cultural aspects, the differences between the UK and the continental European countries are extremely obvious. The US itself is a maritime country, rather than a traditional continental country, and is more similar to the UK.
Of course, this is also directly related to the United States' inheritance of Britain's global hegemony.
Not to mention, when establishing a unified European currency, the United Kingdom was the main opponent, and the United Kingdom was also the only country among the major EU member states that did not join the euro zone.
The problem is that in the process of political integration, Britain is a factor that cannot be ignored.
In the initial stage of political integration, France, Germany and Italy did not exclude Britain, but instead hoped to accelerate the integration process by wooing Britain. Unfortunately, the efforts made by European countries ended in failure, not only failed to win over Britain, but were restrained as a result.
The most representative thing happened in 2011, when the EU's sovereign debt crisis became increasingly serious. Not only did the UK not lend a helping hand, but instead absorbed capital from the euro zone by devaluing the pound significantly, and obstructing it when France proposed to establish a unified finance ministry.
The various performances of the United Kingdom have forced France, Germany, Italy and other European countries to find another way out.
In the second round of political integration, namely the peaceful negotiations between Germany and Austria, Germany bypassed Britain and did not take Britain seriously at all.
However, no one can deny that Britain still plays its due role.
For example, when Germany and Austria were negotiating, the British media first proposed that the Greater German Federation would only promote the extremism of the European continent and increase Germany's influence in the European continent, and would not help other countries, especially countries that played a significant role in Europe.
Obviously, the "other countries" here mainly refer to France.
You should know that France has always played an active role in the process of European integration and has always regarded itself as a leader in the European continent. In history, France once dominated the European continent for hundreds of years, but in comparison, Germany is just an emerging country that only appeared more than a hundred years ago. More importantly, in modern history, Germany has always been the enemy of France, and the most important enemy of France. The remarks of the British news media have been to instigate relations between Germany and France, disintegrate the "German-French axis", and thus prevent the EU from achieving political unification.
There is no doubt that the British voice has had a big impact.
From another perspective, Britain's actions are also protecting its own interests.
For Britain, the key is its alliance with the United States, and Britain's main role in this alliance is to restrain the European continent.
To put it bluntly, for the United States, the main value of Britain is to check and balance Europe and prevent Europe from becoming a unified power.
You should know that if the "France-German Axis" is established, these two most powerful countries in Europe will have the ability to replace the United States and provide sufficient security and economic assistance to other European countries. Politically and economically, France is a recognized major country. In terms of economy, Germany is the world-class power second only to the United States and China (including Japan before the Sino-Japanese War), and the total economic output of France and Germany accounts for 60% of the EU, equivalent to 70% of the United States. If it is united with Italy, the total economic output of France, Germany and Italy accounts for 78% of the EU, close to 90% of the United States, and its military strength will not be much worse.
In other words, if the United States wants to curb Europe, it must first collapse the French-German axis.
For the United States, Europe is too far away and there is no reason to intervene directly. In this way, the United Kingdom plays a crucial role.
If the UK cannot perform this duty and obligation, it will have no value to the United States.
Without the support of the United States and the failure to integrate into the European family, even if the United Kingdom is a permanent member of the Security Council, its status as a great power cannot be guaranteed. To be precise, Britain, which is fighting alone, is nothing, either east or west, and there is absolutely no third way out.
Under the influence of pro-US policies that have lasted for decades, Britain can only go west, not east.
The result is that in order to safeguard its own interests, the UK must try its best to prevent and delay European political integration in order to safeguard its national interests, and it must do everything possible to prevent and delay European political integration. Although the collapse of the EU is not good for Britain, it is much better than becoming a unified country. Of course, the UK will not be committed to disintegrating the EU. After all, preventing political integration will not pose a fatal threat to the existence of the EU.
The question is, is the path chosen by the UK to work?
In the short term, the problem is not very big. After all, as the most important strategic ally of the United States, as long as it still has value, it will not be abandoned by the United States. For example, in the face of the global food crisis, the United Kingdom received full assistance from the United States and received nearly 20 million tons of food aid in 2035 alone. According to the "Aid Act" submitted by the US President to Congress, it will also provide 25 million tons of food to the United Kingdom in 2036. It is the aid from the United States that helps Britain, which cannot be self-sufficiency, overcome the difficulties.
But in the long run, I'm afraid there will be no such optimism.
After the Sino-Japanese War, the US's strategic contraction momentum not only did not weaken, but was greatly accelerated. In a period of global natural disasters, the US's influence was severely challenged. According to some international institutions, if the US cannot conquer the main technology of controllable fusion within five years, then within ten to fifteen years, the US will inevitably give up its position as the world's number one power to China. At that time, the struggle between China and the US will become fierce, and as an ally of the US, the aid that Britain can obtain will be greatly reduced. The reason is very simple. The main threat of the US comes from the Pacific direction, and there will be no energy to take care of the Atlantic direction more. More importantly, if the US has to concentrate on coping with China's threat, it will be impossible to prevent the EU from moving towards reunification. Under this background, the strategic importance of Britain will inevitably be greatly reduced, and it may even be completely abandoned by the US.
It is impossible to rely on the United States and cannot take the European Union's express train. The UK's future situation can be imagined.
In fact, the influence of this aspect has been revealed. For example, in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has always been a traditional ally of Britain. Even during the period when the United States dominated the Middle East, the relationship between Britain and Saudi Arabia was extraordinary. However, when China gradually expanded its influence in the Middle East, the United States could not even protect its own interests, so how could it safeguard its interests. The most representative one is that in 2032, Saudi Arabia did not choose the F-35b fighter mainly promoted by the United Kingdom, but chose China's j-22m, which led to China's
The country and Saudi Arabia had the largest arms trade in history, while the UK's largest arms company was forced to declare bankruptcy and reorganization because it lost this order. At that time, there was only one main reason that prompted Saudi Arabia to choose J-22m: the United States refused to provide the core technology of F-35b, while China was willing to sell the most advanced model of J-22m and provide Saudi Arabia with the original code of the fire control system. Judging from the situation at that time, if the United States agreed to sell core technology, the Saudi Air Force, which had long been familiar with Western weapons and equipment, would likely choose F-35b.
It can be seen that if there is no sufficiently painful lesson, the UK will still be obsessed with it.
If the UK makes the right choice, it will definitely become the main promoter of the EU integration process. On the contrary, it will definitely become the main blocker of the EU integration process.
For continental European countries, the influence of Britain cannot be underestimated.
Chapter completed!