Chapter 090 Record-breaking HSI
"1775 points, broken, broken, broken, broken!"
Gowros Tower, the office of Merrill Lynch Bank (Hong Kong) Asset Management Department, everyone was cheering, screaming and hugging each other with excitement.
Before today, the Hang Seng Index's historical record was 1774.96 points set on March 9, 1973. After that, the Hong Kong stock market collapsed, and the Hang Seng Index naturally plummeted. By the end of 1974, it fell by only 150 points.
It was not until 1978 that the Hong Kong stock market had passed through a five-year haze period and began to enter a new bull market cycle.
Since 1978, although the Hang Seng Index has risen and fallen, it has been rising in a wave. It took nearly three years and the Hang Seng Index has finally broken the record in 1973.
"Boss, the Hang Seng Index has risen very quickly, which should be good news that it has broken through historical records, greatly stimulated investors' confidence, and a large amount of funds chasing the rise are pouring in.
I still stick to my previous point of view. The Hang Seng Index really has the chance to stand at 1,800 points!" Wang Qiwen, as a Hong Kong stock analyst in the team, pushed the glasses on his nose and said to Zhou Yang seriously.
"Maybe you are right, but some people told me that if you eat fish, don't eat fish tails, it's easy to get thorns, just eat the fattest belly.
While the market is still in a fever period, we will quickly start changing positions according to the original plan!" Zhou Yang hugged his hands in front of his chest, staring at the stock index broadcast on the TV screen, and said with a calm expression.
Although the expression on his face is calm now, he actually breathed a sigh of relief. In the Hong Kong entertainment novels he read before traveling through time, he only remembers that the Hong Kong stock market will usher in a climax in 1981.
But the authors generally don’t write so much in detail how much the Hang Seng Index can rise. And even if the authors write, Zhou Yang will not deliberately keep these data in mind! After all, he never expected that one day he would travel back to the 1980s.
Therefore, Zhou Yang can only analyze based on his limited memory. If the Hang Seng Index cannot even break through the high point of 1973, then this bull market is a big climax now!
His logic is obviously very correct. The Hang Seng Index not only broke through the historical threshold of 1775 points, but is still continuing to rise rapidly.
But Zhou Yang did not need to continue to bet, because he understood very well that the Hang Seng Index had actually reached its end. The recent round of market is mainly because since April, the performance statements released by Hong Kong listed companies have generally been very impressive last year, which greatly enhanced investors' confidence.
But from the perspective of the global environment, the world economy has performed poorly since last year, and the United States and Europe have fallen into recession at the same time. The reason why Hong Kong can grow against the trend is mainly due to the large dividends of re-export trade brought by China's reform and opening up.
However, as an export-oriented economy mainly engaged in export processing, Hong Kong's local economy cannot be unaffected after major export markets such as Europe and the United States have performed weakly.
What's more, this round of stock market surge is mainly caused by the prosperity of the real estate market. Among the 33 constituent stocks that make up the Hang Seng Index, 11 companies with real estate as the main business account for. After the surge in the Hong Kong real estate market in recent years, it has accumulated a large number of bubbles.
Taking the bank housing security interest rate that Zhou Yang is focusing on as an example, the average security interest rate in 1978 was only 10%, but the most preferential loan interest rates of Hong Kong banks have now exceeded 20%.
If the qualifications of home buyers are a little worse, many banks even dare to raise the housing security interest rate to a terrible 25%. It can be said that except for speculators, who dares to buy a house with a loan? That is just helping the bank with a free job!
In the land auction in the Hong Kong government in June, real estate giants such as Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai, and Henderson began to bid conservatively, but the Jardines-based Land Company was still expanding radically.
Land Land is a negative example of the next round of Hong Kong's real estate market crash. If Jardinet had not had the thicker blood, it might not have been able to slow down.
"Caroline's grandfather once proposed a famous shoemaker theory. He said that when New York's shoemakers began to talk about the stock market, they had to short stocks.
It is said that his theory helped the Kennedy family successfully avoid the worst major stock market crash in the United States in 1929. Hill, when you write a column in a few days, you can use this little story!" Zhou Yang turned his head and said to Naoki Nakagawa beside him.
"Boss, do you think the Hong Kong stock market will really usher in a major stock market crash soon?" The Hang Seng Index, which was rising steadily, frowned and said.
"Of course, because Hong Kong's stock market and real estate market are linked, as long as the real estate market plummets, real estate companies will naturally suffer the first time. Secondly, companies that provide construction raw materials to Jingzhou Yingni, and financial industries that provide credit to real estate companies will also be affected.
What's more, real estate is the most important asset for most middle-class families in Hong Kong. The plummeting property price means that everyone's assets will shrink rapidly, and lenders may even fall into the dilemma of negative assets!
In this case, it is completely predictable that the Hong Kong stock market plummets. In fact, as a confidence market, its sensitivity is far above the real estate market, so the stock market plummets will only be before the real estate market collapses!" Zhou Yang said confidently.
Naoki Nakagawa immediately remained silent. He was very clear about how much bubble there was in the Hong Kong real estate market. In order to collect information and basis for short selling Jianing Real Estate, Naoki Nakagawa conducted a detailed investigation of the Hong Kong real estate industry.
Just as Zhou Yang was talking, the rest of the team had calmed down after celebrating that the Hang Seng Index broke the record and began to continue their work.
Selling orders were quickly conveyed to the red vests of the four Hong Kong exchanges through phone calls. Zhou Yang's team's position in Hong Kong stocks began to gradually decrease, and a large amount of floating profits were fixed into real profits.
As one of the big players in the Hong Kong stock market, Merrill Lynch Bank will naturally be followed by people with intentions. As soon as Zhou Yang made a move, the news was spread.
"Boss Lv, Merrill Lynch is selling a large amount of stocks from Henderson & Chining Real Estate today!" An employee of Sun Hung Kai Securities immediately started calling after getting home from get off work.
"Where are other stocks?"
"There is no movement in other stocks for the time being. By the way, they also bought some HSBC and Hang Seng stocks in a small amount!"
"Okay, I understand! A Guang, have you gotten off work? I'll pick you up. Let's wash your feet together after dinner and relax!" The person who was called Boss Lu said to the microphone with a smile.
"Hengji Shijie's current stock price has risen by 40% compared to when the new stock was listed a month ago. I also want to put it in the pocket first. Jianing Real Estate just used 6% of its shares to exchange for 46% of Qichang Life Insurance. Chen Songqing has another listed company. Jianing Real Estate's stock price has also risen a lot, and it should be sold at high prices!" After Boss Lu hung up the phone, he began to talk to himself.
A large part of the funds invested by Zhou Yang's team in Hong Kong stocks are operated through trading seats at Sun Hung Kai Securities. If someone is interested in bribing people inside Sun Hung Kai, they will naturally find clues of their actions.
However, Zhou Yang is not unprepared. After all, Merrill Lynch is not a newcomer to the industry, so naturally there is a complex way to avoid exposing his intentions as much as possible or to expose his intentions late.
For example, when selling, you buy at the same time, only focus on one or two stocks, etc. It makes it difficult for you to judge whether Zhou Yang is just not optimistic about a few stocks or the entire market.
Chapter completed!