"That's alright, just have fun with it!" Situ Jian said with a smile.

Situ Jian has never played games, so he obviously doesn’t know what “Tu Yile” is!

…

Japan's share of global trade peaked in 1986, when the foreign trade shares of the United States and Japan were almost equal. In 1994, Japan's trade reached its second peak. Japan's share of global trade that year was only smaller than that of 1986.

A little younger.

Since 1994, Japan's global trade volume has continued to decline. By 2020, Japan's foreign trade proportion will be similar to that of the 1960s.

The reason is, of course, the structural problems of the Japanese economy, and the Asian financial crisis has also become a catalyst to accelerate this situation.

In the late 1980s, with the appreciation of the yen, Japan began to increase its foreign investment, with hundreds of billions of dollars being spent, creating the so-called Four Asian Tigers.

The Four Asian Tigers have also become part of Japan's supply chain because they have accepted Japan's transferred industrial chain, and in this process, Japan's trade figures have also been generated.

However, Southeast Asia has many problems, such as backward infrastructure, unstable political situation, low worker efficiency, etc. Simply put, the real economic industries of the Four Asian Tigers are unable to absorb Japan's large capital investment.

For example, Japan invested a lot of money to build a factory in the Philippines. After the factory was built, it found that it could not recruit qualified workers. Filipinos would rather bask in the sun than work in the factory. After finally recruiting workers, they found that the power supply was insufficient.

; After solving the power problem, we found that the products produced could not be transported because of poor transportation facilities;

After the traffic problem was solved, the Philippines' political dignitaries were re-elected, and the newly appointed officials changed the policy; after the newly appointed officials were dealt with, the drug lords and anti-government armed forces came to cause trouble again, and kidnapped two Japanese company executives at random, which was enough.

Japanese investors have a headache.

In addition, Southeast Asian countries have never established a complete industrial system. They cannot consume too many industrial products themselves, so they can only serve as a link in the industrial chain of Japanese companies.

When the real economies of the Four Asian Tigers cannot absorb Japan's huge investment, then funds will inevitably flow into those virtual asset industries, such as the financial industry, thereby pushing up the local currency bubble.

Southeast Asian countries were obviously aware of the bubble in their currencies, but they resorted to control measures, but instead of choosing capital controls and tightening monetary policies, they adopted loose monetary policies. This was obviously a death-seeking behavior in the eyes of later generations.

International financial speculators like Soros have long smelled the smell of this bubble, but they have never had the opportunity to take action. It was not until Thailand announced that it would abandon its fixed exchange rate and adopt a floating exchange rate that the financial speculators finally realized that their opportunity had come.

Got it!

There is a concept of "triple paradox" in economics, which refers to the fact that under the conditions of an open economy, the independence of the country's monetary policy, the stability of the exchange rate, and the complete liquidity of capital cannot be achieved at the same time. At most, they can only be satisfied simultaneously.

two goals while giving up the other.

Theoretically, it is also possible for these three elements to coexist, that is, a country has an infinite amount of foreign exchange. When the foreign exchange market fluctuates, it can use an infinite amount of foreign exchange to stabilize its own currency.

Therefore, the Three Yuan Paradox does not apply to the United States. After all, the Federal Reserve can print money unlimitedly.

Thailand originally had exchange rate stability and capital liquidity, but it did not have the independence of monetary policy.

The vast majority of countries in the world do not have independent monetary policies, and there are no more than ten countries in the world that truly have independent monetary policies.

To know whether a country has monetary policy independence, it is easy to see if the United States has classified the country as a currency manipulator.

As long as the country is listed as a currency manipulator by the United States, it means that the domestic currency can be used as a tool to adjust the economy without having to look at the face of the US dollar, then this country can be regarded as having the independence of monetary policy.

When Thailand faced its own currency bubble, it hoped to control it through monetary policy, so Thailand decided to abandon its fixed exchange rate in exchange for the independence of monetary policy.

However, Thailand did not have enough foreign exchange to cope with international speculators. As a result, the Thai baht suffered a blow, dominoes fell, and the Asian financial crisis broke out. The Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, and Malaysian ringgit became the targets of international speculators one after another.

Later, as more and more international speculators joined, the Hong Kong dollar, Korean won and Japanese yen also came under attack one after another.

The Hong Kong dollar relied on the foreign exchange supported by the state, and a large amount of foreign exchange was poured into it, and finally repelled the international bankruptcies; South Korea sold its assets to Wall Street, and even its state-owned banks were sold, and finally exchanged for foreign exchange for emergency relief, but in the end it was

Their vitality was severely damaged; Japan, on the other hand, had a strong family background and large foreign exchange reserves, so it was able to carry it through.

However, Japan's investment in Southeast Asia has suffered huge losses. Those investments that originally brought profits have become worthless, and some have even become negative assets.

Therefore, although the Asian financial crisis was caused by the economic structure of Southeast Asian countries, it was Japan that caused this economic structure.

Japan transferred its economic bubble to other Asian countries through investment, and then when the bubble burst, everyone was finished together.

However, international financial speculators are not only found on Wall Street, but also in Tokyo. During the Asian financial crisis, the shadow of the Japanese yen can always be seen. Japanese financial speculators probably made a lot of money as a result.

…

Several other scholars also arrived one after another, and Li Weidong finally got to know some of the top experts.

These scholars can all meet the leaders through appointments and can speak well in front of the leaders. Being able to know such people is an extraordinary resource in itself.

At the same time, leaders of ministries and commissions participating in the study also arrived at the venue one after another.

He Anan's uncle walked into the venue and greeted everyone he met.

"Old Wu, you came very early!"

"Lao Zhu, I've sent someone to send the plan I mentioned last time to you. Please take a look at it when you have time. I'm still waiting for your reply!"

"Wang Department, I went to investigate that policy last week. If we really want to implement it, we need the cooperation of the two units. We can't slap it with just one slap!"

"The documents I mentioned on the phone yesterday have been sent to my secretary. Okay, I'll take a look at them right away when I get back!"

Uncle He was also very busy. He walked in and took care of several things.

Finally, Uncle He found his seat and sat down. The staff immediately came forward and poured water into the tea cup in front of Uncle He.

Uncle He opened the folder on the table, which contained the lecture notes for today's lecture.

"International Geopolitics after the Collapse of the Soviet Union, the speaker, Wang Changning, is Professor Wang from the China Foreign Affairs University!"

"The development of modern stock and futures markets, the speaker is Huang Liwei. Let me think about it, he seems to be a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics."

"Econometric analysis of regional fiscal differences and foreign investment. The speaker, Situ Jian, is Academician Situ of the Academy of Social Sciences!"

"Interpretation of Japan's economic policy after the 1990s and its impact on Asia. The speaker is Li Weidong... Who is this? Is the one who talks about Japan's economic policy from the Institute of Japan, Academy of Social Sciences? Since when have there been so many leaders around?

Such a wise man?"

"By the way, this name sounds so familiar. Yes, I remembered that the person An An is looking for is also named Li Weidong!

There are quite a few people with the surname Li, but with a name like Wei Dong, they have the same name as another academician!

"It's true that the same name has a different destiny! We should really let that boy Li Weidong come over and see how Academician Li, also named Li Weidong, can speak in front of the leaders! Look at you, self-employed, eh!"

Thinking of this, Uncle He curled his lips unconsciously, and his dissatisfaction with Li Weidong rose again in his heart.
Chapter completed!