Volume 20: Looking at the World with Cold Eyes, Section 109
Lu Weimin's strong language made Huang Wenxu a little scared. He also realized that the current strong stimulus policies adopted by the country are becoming less and less obvious. For example, although the economy is still recovering this year, he feels very fragile. Fengzhou is slightly better. For example, other cities in the province, such as Guiping/Puming/Qingxi/Kunhu, are not optimistic. The growth rate in the first half of the year is still good, and the economic growth rate in the second half of the year is slowing down again. This is not a good phenomenon.
However, although he also thought the economic situation was not very good, he did not expect that it was as bad as Lu Weimin said. Lu Weimin believed that the fundamentals of the entire economic situation had changed, and he even described some of the current domestic situation as quite dangerous.
"Secretary Lu, the domestic economic community still believes that China will have a golden development period of ten to twenty years. Our current urbanization rate is still very low, which is very different from developed countries, and the industrialization process is not enough. I think there is still some reason." Huang Wenxu said slowly: "Our country is too big, and the development imbalance in various places is very obvious, especially in the central and western regions, where infrastructure is still relatively backward. Whether it is railways, highways, bridges and terminals, there is still a lot of room for development, so we are facing some problems at present, but in the long run, the development space in the central and western regions is still relatively large, so I think that although the economic growth rate cannot make as rapid as in previous years, it can still maintain a certain growth rate."
Lu Weimin shook his head.
What Huang Wenxu said is not wrong. The demand for infrastructure construction in the central and western regions is indeed relatively large, but he ignored the speed of capacity expansion in these domestic industries.
Now all regions are vigorously attracting investment and constantly expanding these production capacity, especially local party committees and governments are strongly supporting the expansion of these industries, because this is the best way to bring political achievements to local governments, namely GDP and fiscal taxation, so local governments will also put pressure on banks to urge the financial sector to support the expansion of production capacity in these industries. Under this momentum, the central government’s proposed compression of excess capacity is simply ignored.
The power of affairs is not unified and local finances are insufficient. They can only make up for it by either selling land or expanding the tax base. The central government considers the need to compress excess capacity from a macro perspective, but it is difficult to get local support. At least if the market collapses due to the downturn, local governments will not sincerely support the compression of production capacity.
Another point is that the urbanization process is quite different from developed countries in Europe and the United States, but China has China's special national conditions. You cannot expect that the urbanization process will catch up with developed countries in a short period of time. It takes a process to transform farmers into citizens. One of the key elements is that cities need to provide farmers with necessary employment opportunities, and when you cannot meet this need, the process will slow down.
Lu Weimin did not agree with the practice of blindly advancing the urbanization process quickly. In his opinion, this practice was too blind. The urbanization process was too fast, resulting in a large number of rural residents becoming citizens after losing their land. However, they did not have the means to make a living in the city, and it would be difficult for them to adapt to urban life in a short period of time. This brought many unstable factors to society.
Lu Weimin believes that the correct approach should be adapted to local conditions. The secondary industry is certainly fundamental, but there is a lot to do in the primary and tertiary industries. Let’s not talk about the tertiary industry for the time being. Take the primary industry as an example. Lu Weimin feels that the current development of the primary industry in China lacks scientific and reasonable planning, especially in specific details. He believes that governments at all levels should focus on the primary industry according to different situations in various places. The current extensive agricultural operation and development has led everyone to think that there is no money to make in agriculture, and farmers also think it is not cost-effective and would rather go out to work and make money. However, Lu Weimin believes that Chinese agriculture actually has the foundation for taking a refined path, especially in rural labor, there are still many bound to the land, and this path is very promising.
Of course, there is still a lot of work to do to follow this path, especially the crucial thing to provide farmers with more systematic technical training. On this point, Lu Weimin felt that it was not done enough in China.
"Wenxu, I don't agree with your point of view." Lu Weimin's expression was a little heavy, "We cannot copy the European and American models of urbanization and industrialization. People's development experience does not necessarily apply to us. This is determined by multiple factors. The current status of land/population/industry in our country determines that our agricultural population cannot be transformed into urban population at once. This is not realistic. The development of our primary, secondary and tertiary industries still has its own characteristics. Although the development of the secondary and tertiary industries dominates, the tertiary industries will still occupy an important position more and more, but the primary industry is still very important. Our rural labor force can still be in the primary industry.
There is great potential for the development of the industry, that is, to take the path of refined eco-agriculture, organic agriculture, and high-end agriculture. As the proportion of the domestic middle class increases, their requirements for food will become higher and higher. Fertilizers, pesticides, antibiotics, hormones, genetically modified products, and these food safety-related things will become more and more sensitive and even become a psychological trend. Due to the credibility of our domestic government law enforcement departments, this type of food abroad will be driven straight, and the most typical ones are milk powder, high-end fruits and vegetables, and genetically modified crops. I believe you have noticed that the deformities in the domestic food market can be seen in some clues."
Huang Wenxu understood Lu Weimin's meaning. The Sanlu milk powder incident was almost a devastating blow to the domestic milk powder industry and even the entire domestic food industry. It can even be said to be a turning point. Since then, many domestic foods have been regarded by Chinese people as tinted glasses. The dereliction of duty by relevant domestic law enforcement departments has also been clamored by domestic and foreign countries for a while, and is considered to lack sufficient sense of responsibility and professional standards. Although some of the views on this issue are biased, it is undeniable that many problems in domestic agriculture are quite serious, such as the abuse of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, the uncontrollable high-toxic pesticides, the proliferation of hormones, and the risks of genetically modified foods. These all surround the domestic food industry, so that the wealthy classes in China have placed their hopes for food safety on foreign food.
"Secretary Lu, do you think agriculture has great potential?" Huang Wenxu asked with a frown.
"Of course there is great potential. Changjiang is a major agricultural province with abundant water and thermal land resources. It has unique advantages in developing refined agriculture. If we can do a good job in green ecological organic matter, establish a brand, and establish the credibility of our Changjiang agriculture, I think this will bring us very rich returns to Changjiang agriculture." Lu Weimin nodded confidently: "At present, I see that many places in China are focusing on the industry and real estate industry. Indeed, developing the industry and real estate industry is the easiest to see.
Effective, GDP, taxation, land transfer fees, these pieces come quickly and can also drive employment, which is of course a good thing, but after all, there is a degree that everyone is sought after and popular, so you have to consider whether it will be overheated, whether it will be overheated, unpopular, and what everyone is unwilling to do, but often contains opportunities. In contrast, the development of the tertiary industry is more important, but everyone pays verbally to the agriculture sector, but in fact, everyone doesn’t take it seriously. Why? It’s just that agriculture contributes too little to GDP and taxation.”
Huang Wenxu felt that Lu Weimin had made all the current problems. If you want to be motivated now, you have to talk about political achievements. No matter what tricks you have or what connections you have, the most fundamental and basic one is that you have to have political achievements. If you don’t have political achievements, you have to be stabbed by others and sniped. You can’t fight back. Only with political achievements can you speak of anything else. What is political achievements at the moment? You have to talk about economic development. The old leader in front of you is the best example, and the data that best shows economic development is of course GDP, which is fiscal revenue. So what Lu Weimin said is correct.
Seeing that Huang Wenxu didn't say anything, Lu Weimin further said: "GDP and fiscal revenue are of course very important, but as our Changjiang still has many poor counties. To solve the problem of poverty alleviation for a considerable number of people, the key is to solve their income increase problem. This is the top priority. I think there is great potential in the strategy of refining agriculture."
Lu Weimin's words made Huang Wenxu have to admit that for poor areas, especially mountainous areas, if you find a suitable way to increase income for the people in these poor areas, industry alone cannot solve the problem, and you cannot use industry to provide them with a channel to make money and make a living. From the perspective of agriculture, it is undoubtedly more realistic. Of course, the premise is to come up with targeted countermeasures.
"Secretary Lu, your point of view is very reasonable. Although Fengzhou has now become an industrial sector, it is essentially an agricultural market. In this regard, I think Fengzhou is still very promising." Huang Wenxu was not flattering, but felt that Lu Weimin's suggestions were really worthy. Several counties in Fengzhou belong to hilly counties, and industries are basically concentrated in the industrial concentration areas of the county towns. The concentration of industrial development at the township level is still very low. If we can make a fuss about refined agriculture as Lu Weimin said, especially for green agriculture, ecological agriculture, and high-end agriculture, it will be a new highlight.
"Wenxu, you don't have to flatter me. If you really think there is a trick, you can think about it carefully. This was originally a path I considered for the poor counties like Changxi/Xiliang. It is not yet mature, and it depends on the situation." Lu Weimin waved his hand and smiled.
Thousands of words are turned into two words, please vote! (To be continued.)
Chapter completed!