Volume 20 Looking at the World with Cold Eyes Section 73 Take Every Step Well
Zhao Jiahuai is quite familiar with the situation in Myanmar.
Myanmar is no longer in line with China than other countries. It has a long border with China. Moreover, the people in the border areas of the two countries have many relatives and close ties with the people. Moreover, since the founding of the People's Republic of China, China and Myanmar have been closely connected.
Myanmar's military government has maintained good relations with China. Even though Myanmar has now launched a roadmap and is preparing to gradually advance party politics, the Gong Party, which is based on the military, still maintains very close interactions with China.
At the same time, another major political party in Myanmar, the Democratic League, also has a deep connection with China. The mother of the current leader of the Democratic League has a good friendship with the older generation of Chinese leaders. However, due to the changes in the political situation in Myanmar, the Democratic League has been repeatedly suppressed by the Myanmar military. China has to act cautiously from the perspective of national interests and carefully develop its relationship with the Democratic League.
However, in the view of 6 people, this prudent policy has a certain relationship with the special historical environment at that time. Now the international situation has undergone earth-shaking changes. China is about to become the second largest economic power and a permanent member of the Security Council. Its international influence and regional influence are incomparable. China should be more confident and proactive in dealing with neighboring countries, especially on some issues involving principles. It should express its own views frankly and clearly, otherwise it will be easily exploited by some countries.
For example, China has few other parties except Gong Party. In the view of the people, it has become a general trend to promote party politics with the changes in the domestic situation in Myanmar. As an important neighbor of China, it is natural for China to actively develop relations with various parties in Myanmar. Even if the Gong Party has some estrangement, it is probably difficult to express its opinions to others. After all, their domestic democratic process is also promoted by themselves. They also hope to prove their existence through upright party competition. Then it is natural for many things to be put on the table.
Zhao Jiahuai also had a headache about 6 Weimin's proposal to take out something to show himself. This means that his new deputy had already made plans, and he had made a decision, and he would leave the formed things to him. Even if you want to modify it, it would be difficult for you to agree with it, and if you don't agree with it, this thing will have to be spread here sooner or later. Something like this kind of opinion can have been taken out to discuss, but if you force yourself to suppress it, it will seem that you are narrow-minded.
"With the people, are you so unfavorable about the situation in Myanmar?" Since 6 Weimin is so active in contacting other Myanmar political parties, including the Democratic League, it means that he is not optimistic about the prospects of the Gong Party. This is somewhat inconsistent with the information fed back from Myanmar. Although Myanmar has proposed a roadmap in China, the Gong Party has a deep foundation and is closely related to the military that holds great power. There are also many binding designs from the institutional and legal level. Therefore, from the current situation, it is unlikely that the Democratic League and other political parties will shake the situation where the Cong Party is dominant, unless the Democratic League and other political parties can get an absolute majority in the general election, but the institutional design makes it unlikely that the Democratic League will have a big victory in the current situation. Therefore, Zhao Jiahuai is also puzzled why the Democratic League is so optimistic about the Democratic League.
"Minister Jiahuai, it's not that I am not optimistic about the situation in Myanmar, but that since Myanmar has chosen to take this path, it is inevitable whether it is gradual or sudden. The Party has a military background and strong strength. Its strength is based on the absolute support of the military, and the people at the bottom are very mentally keen on its plan. Now the international and domestic forms do not recognize the model of direct military rule. The huge international and domestic pressure forces the military to push it behind the scenes. The rule must be achieved through democratic elections. They have also done a lot of institutional designs, but judging by the current situation in Myanmar, judging by the current situation in Myanmar, the huge international and domestic pressure forces the military to push it behind the scenes. The rule must be achieved through democratic elections. They have also done a lot of institutional designs, but judging from the current situation in Myanmar,
, the people are very keen to seek change, so I think institutional design may not resist the change of this situation. Of course, this is a gradual process, and it may not be clear in one or two years. But you can see the clues. As the trend of seeking change in Myanmar is flooding, this wave of changes will come sooner or later, and the Democratic League, which leads the people's hearts, will sooner or later appear on the political stage. On the other hand, it will be difficult for the Consolidation Party, which is carrying the burden of history. The more you are relaxed, it is equivalent to providing soil for the opposition parties of the Democratic League, such as the opposition parties of the Democratic League. If you don't let go, it will be like a suppression spring, and the rebound will be greater, so this is a dilemma."
6. Analyzing for the people, "If we don't make mistakes now, we may fall into a passive position in some future things. Some large-scale projects we cooperate with Myanmar may be introduced by many people as targets for criticizing the ruling party. These political parties, including the Democratic League, can attack the difficulties from the perspective of the opposition. Only when they are in power will they realize the importance of these cooperation projects in China to the Myanmar country and will readjust the policies. However, once you have too much trouble to the people in the early stage, it will not be so easy to restore the people's psychology. Even other opposition parties will also use the methods you have used to attack you. These factors may have a great impact on our country's projects in Myanmar."
"So you think you should have active contact with those opposition parties that may replace the Gong Party now? But do you think they will accept our views?" Zhao Jiahuai asked back.
"They have their position, and populism is the way they have to choose now, because only in this way can they attract more people's attention." 6 Weimin continued: "We are going to contact them now, not to please anyone, but to promote contact and understanding between the two sides, introduce our practices, ideas and opinions to them, so that they can understand that these large-scale cooperation projects that China has promoted in Myanmar are not simply to seize. This is a win-win move for both countries. At the same time, they are welcome to visit our country and see that China has achieved the economic quadrupled in 30 years and the people's living standards will be improved quickly. I believe that as long as we are a political party that is determined to rule, whether in the country or in their country, we will be interested in our China's governance experience. One or two contacts and exchanges may not be very effective, but as long as we insist on mutual exchanges and understanding, I believe it will play a role."
Zhao Jiahuai's view of 6 is somewhat reasonable. However, the relationship between China and Myanmar is very complicated, especially during this sensitive period. If you really want to take the initiative to contact the opposition parties including the Democratic League and some local political parties, it will definitely require approval from the central high-level officials, and the central high-level officials also need to comprehensively evaluate the pros and cons here.
6. I feel that this is what I can do. The "resources" left to him by memory of my previous life are becoming more and more. Moreover, when using these "resources", you have to consider various factors in a comprehensive way. Otherwise, you will be able to come up with a view for no reason and you will not be able to convince people at all.
Just like the changes in the political situation in Myanmar proposed by him, from the current pattern, there has been no major change in Myanmar's pattern. However, as time goes by and the roadmap for domestic advancement in Myanmar, various populist sentiments in Myanmar will become stronger and stronger. It is precisely during this period that China is vigorously promoting the construction of major projects in Myanmar, from the China-Myanmar oil pipeline to the Myitsson Power Station to the Leippitang Copper Mine. This series of projects that should have been win-win are used by people in Myanmar, or used by political parties as weapons of attack. As a result, they have to be shelved, which has caused huge losses to China.
It is really hard to say that you are helpless even though you know that some things will happen, but you are powerless. Therefore, while considering these factors, you must also find a reasonable basis to support your point of view. Just like you "doubt" that West Asia and North Africa may usher in an unstable period, then you must have three games to come up with conclusive evidence. Even if there is no conclusive evidence, at least you must have the risks of combining many possibilities together. Only in this way can you barely get the attention and attention of senior management, and have some basic response measures.
Now the Navy is promoting the Chinese Navy and Djibouti Navy to hold joint military exercises in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, which is also a measure. For the people, even give some suggestions to the Navy to rent the Djibouti port as a temporary berth and stand up first to prevent accidents. However, this suggestion really lacks sufficient reasons.
The situation in Myanmar is similar, and it lasts longer. You may not see anything within one or two years. It will take three to five years to see the true seal. But by then, China's interests have been damaged. To make up for it again, it will not only take time and effort, but may also face various challenges, especially the deliberate slander and difficulties from Western countries. Therefore, 6 is willing to spare no effort to promote the first and at least win some first moves.
Please support! (To be continued.)
Chapter completed!