Overcapacity? An economic crisis may break out? What a joke!

Yan Fu suddenly felt like he was struck by lightning, because he couldn't imagine that these two situations would be related to China, which was desolate in industry a few years ago.∈↗↗

He shook his head hard in disbelief: "That's impossible. Now that China's industry has just been built, many machinery production rely on your channel's 'import', how can there be an oversupply? I absolutely don't believe it."

Yan Fu has very sufficient reasons to doubt it. He was the first pioneer to accept Yang Hao's "big industrial party" theory, and even came to his own conclusions through rigorous calculations and logical reasoning. Yang Hao's statement can be applied to almost every powerful country.

According to the plan obtained by Yang Hao from his professional team in the world, if a country wants to become a strong country, it must first be an industrial power. This is not just a technological leadership in some fields, but the comprehensive output of basic industries must reach a very high level per capita.

For example, steel, according to data, to become an industrial power at the end of the 19th century, per capita steel consumption must reach the standard of 100 kilograms. This means that China, with a population of more than 400 million people, must have an annual output of at least 40 million tons to pass.

This is not the data that later generations of "brickers" stayed in air-conditioned houses and guessed randomly. You can know it by comparing the two most representative powers in the world today - Britain and Germany.

In 1891, the UK's population was 38 million and the steel output was 3.6 million tons. Germany's population was 49 million and the steel output was only 2.4 million tons. The obviously powerful side was the UK. But by 1896, Germany's steel output exceeded that of the UK. It soared to 14 million tons in 1914. At this time, its population also soared to 65 million! The per capita steel output exceeded 200 kilograms, twice that of the UK (6.5 million tons)!

So everyone knew very well that the Germans provoked World War I and beat up a bunch of European brothers torture and collapse.

So what is the second indicator of coal output, as an industrial power? In 1871, Britain occupied an absolute leading position in the world, reaching a terrible number of 112 million tons, while Germany only had 34 million tons. But in 1890, the Germans rushed to catch up to around 60 million tons! By 1913, the coal output in England and Germany was almost the same.

It should be noted that the UK has already owned 30 million square kilometers of controlled land worldwide at this time, and the Germans have just completed unification for more than 20 years. In terms of the actual per capita ownership, the Germans undoubtedly have the upper hand.

The proportion of coal and steel production and population share is almost equivalent to the comprehensive strength of a powerful country in the 19th century. This indicator is almost indisputable and is also something that contemporary China must catch up.

According to this ratio, it would be fine if the Qing Dynasty three years ago. When the Hanyang Iron Factory was not completed, there was no industrial output at all. After Yang Hao and his family arrived, they bought second-hand steel mills here without restrictions. They directly projected and relocated the entire steel mill here! The retired engineers from the 21st century in this world helped build a complete production system completed by debugging! They secretly turned around under the guise of supporting industrial construction for African people, and the speed was so fast.

In just less than three years, he built a production capacity of 6 million tons.

Yan Fu is not clear about the details, but he knows that compared with Yang Hao's revolutionary program, the annual steel output of only one million tons is now, compared with the large land area and the population that has completed land reform, it should be far from enough. How can there be overcapacity?

He can't figure it out.

Yang Hao had to explain to him with his finger: "The main reason is that the performance and quality of the steel we currently produce is not up to standard, and the most consumed fields of machinery, shipbuilding, chemicals, railways, boilers, engines, etc. are not expected for the time being, and must rely on imports. The performance that has been produced is poor and unstable, so we can only use small hardware, agricultural tools and building materials with low technical indicators."

Yan Fu was stunned and could not accept it for a while. So Yang Hao dragged him directly to Tianjin University of Technology and invited Hua Hengfang, the leading expert in China today, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and president of the university, to ask him to teach the Party Leader.

Mr. Hua, who is 65 years old this year, is in good spirits, with a lot of chalk gray dyed on his gray hair. He just finished the Liantang course but didn't seem to feel tired.

The old man was quite surprised when Yang Hao and Yan Fu visited the two giants together. After giving tea and greetings, he asked for the purpose of the visit. He couldn't help but sigh in shame: "It's a matter of this that I'm so incompetent. I have to buy the world's first-class conditions and equipment. I should have completed the textbooks, but I still find it difficult to take on the big task. I am really ashamed, ashamed!"

The old man opened his mouth and took the responsibility to himself. Yang Hao quickly helped him explain: "The old principal should not be humble. It is already quite difficult for you and everyone to run the equipment. Industrial production is not a matter of overnight success. It is a great improvement to be able to operate it in five years."

Hua Hengfang just shook her head and felt guilty.

Judging from his original intention, Yang Hao could not do better. First, the complete set of steel consortium production systems were assembled for them to run. Every equipment operation in the entire production process was sent to them and films were sent to them for learning. The operation manual was meticulous and thorough. As long as you were not an illiterate fool, you could always get started bit by bit.

This is not the end. Teachers of old men with high identities have the opportunity to go to the secret laboratory to simulate the operation and study the entire set of equipment through the touch screen terminal, and even the laboratories after the 1980s do casual research. It can be said that in addition to the initiation of direct induction in science fiction films, in terms of learning conditions, they have already broken through the sky.

Under such thoughtful conditions, Hua Hengfang, Xu Jianyin and other industrial pioneers led a large group of precious talents who had learned their own teaching or returned from overseas to explore and learn to build steel plants in Tianjin, Hebei and Xuzhou, and trained a group of technicians and apprentices as quickly as possible, and tried hard to start running and producing from the smallest equipment.

It has been three years since then, and the two major steel factories in Rizhao and Qingdao are actually put into operation continuously. After all, they are a complete set of factories directly projected from the world. Only by having the best group of technologies and workers in the country can they ensure their safe and normal operation.

Other steel mills are still using the slag-stained steel furnace pellets to crush a series of equipment. Yang Hao used the principle to make equipment with a production capacity of hundreds of thousands of tons as experimental products and scrapped. As long as qualified industrial workers can be trained, all losses will be worth it.

Don’t think that this can be simple. In the 1950s, when China built the first batch of basic industries, it took many years to get started under the guidance of Russian experts. The real steel industry has made breakthroughs. It was in the 1980s (China’s steel production in 1980 was 37.12 million tons).

Now that Yang Hao has provided all the convenient conditions, major steel mills still use converter steelmaking technology to produce crude steel.

The seemingly a small annual output of only one million tons is already terrifying enough. At least Hua Hengfang and others are dumbfounded and unable to describe it. Because they can't find a second company that can have such technical equipment in the world.

Yan Fu felt that the old man was too modest and asked in confusion: "Even if the steel produced is used for crude material, how can it not be consumed in the face of a market of 200 million people?"

Hua Hengfang sighed: "We underestimated the speed of industrial production growth, but overestimated the general public's determination to spend money! It's not that no one is willing to buy it, but that most people can't afford it!"

Yan Fu was very cheerful and felt ashamed again. He really couldn't find the industry. In the end, it was because of their lack of work in government officials!

In fact, there is another fatal problem here. Chinese people like to save money too much and are reluctant to spend money, because since ancient times, people have been afraid of being poor for thousands of years.

In China at the end of the 19th century, landlords and wealthy liked to put silver in jars and buried them in the ground. Shanxi old stingers could even save hundreds of millions of taels of silver in the cellar! Even though the money bank ticket business has started in recent decades, the degree of silver circulation is still very low.

Since the Ming and Qing dynasties, landlords and gentry were not very concerned about industry. Most of them made money through various means and bought land by local owners. Then officials and businessmen colluded to find ways to occupy the land of self-cultivated farmers and turn them into tenants to farm for themselves. In the prosperous year, they tried their best to pay taxes and fees to force farmers to go bankrupt. In the disaster year, they took the opportunity to raise grain prices and lower land prices to merge land and become big landlords.

This vicious cycle was until the search could not be searched again, and the peasants who could not survive rebelled and rebelled.

The landlords and gentry who have money are reluctant to spend money. Many people use white flour and meat that they pick. In addition, they plunder the farmers too cleanly, which leads to extremely underdeveloped agricultural and sideline products and livestock breeding, which leads to the fact that even if you have money, you can't buy much good things.

If you really have money, you have to spend money. You can only raise concubines to build a big house, collect jewelry, antiques and cultural relics. This is considered high-end. Most of the low-end ones would rather bury their money in the ground.

The people naturally have no money to consume. Sick, hoe and iron pot are considered the big head of steel consumption. Basically, these things can be used for decades without any accidents, until the sickle is sharpened to only a narrow piece of iron left, and the hoe is almost unable to be embedded. There are many holes on the iron pot. Some things must be stuffed when cooking to avoid leaking...

Where does steel consumption come from in this situation?

After understanding the current situation, Yang Hao formulated a linkage policy to promote consumption. While liberating the population through land reform, all types of jobs were included in the job wage management system. Even if migrant workers worked hard to help build roads and dig trenches, they had to pay. New cooperatives in rural areas should also adopt the method of counting centimeters to determine wages, and turn agricultural production into an industrial division of labor and cooperation system.

This complete failure completely cut off the roots of the landlords. "Good landlords" who can pass the land reform will face the bleakness of not being able to hire people to farm without spending money. If they don't join the cooperative, they will not get good fertilizers and pesticides and irrigation, resulting in the miserable situation where a 70 or 80 kilograms of grain produced per mu is not enough for wages.

A large number of farmers and ordinary citizens have become wage workers as they push for industrialization. But people in this era are too poor. They first use every cent they get to solve the basic conditions such as food, clothing, and housing. Even if each factory has prepared at least two sets of work clothes for them, including shorts, socks and gloves. Students have no tuition fees for school and school uniforms, and they are all conscientious in taking medical treatment and taking medicine, but after all, they can't help them even solve the house.

Even in Shandong, where land reform was first implemented, many factories, mining, ports and terminals were established. Most people still have no choice but to have enough money. The paper money they strongly promoted was deposited in the bank. It is nowhere to be possible to form a market system.

It’s not that Yang Hao didn’t find a way to promote consumption. Under the guise of changing customs and changing customs, he used the “three turns and one sound” as a model for wedding betrothal gifts. In this way, every household worked hard to buy a set of bicycles, steel mechanical watches, sewing machines and radios.

But no matter how much these four things are discounted, they will need at least 200 yuan to buy them. With an average monthly basic income of five yuan (equivalent to Dayang) this year, both employees have to save for two or three years!

And this is already Yang Hao’s bottom line in promoting industrial products. No matter how low it is, it cannot be studied.

Nowadays, most industrial steel is still from Yang Hao's time and space reselling, which invisibly further ran the market of Plane B. Of course, if Hua Hengfang and others could guarantee the production quality of all steel mills. They could be used to manufacture boiler steam engine rail ship tractors without being a second-hand dealer, then they could really solve the production capacity problem.

If I want to reach that level, I will never dare to say it will be fine for another three to five years.

(In China, the consumption of big things started in the 1980s. China had spent 30 years to accumulate the foundation of industrialization, which was a very long process.)

Once the problem is clear, Yan Fu can understand Yang Hao's intention to keep launching wars.

War is undoubtedly the most direct and effective means to consume industrial productivity. To start the warship, heavy oil, diesel, lubricating oil and various oils are needed. Therefore, Yang Hao established and projected to Qingdao in Africa to have a million-ton refinery products. The war requires bullets and shells, so all major arsenals started to work. Some products of the steel plant, petrochemical plants and steel plant affiliated chemical plants, coal chemical plants, fertilizer plants, etc. can also be shipped in sufficient quantity. Except for chemical fertilizers, there is a serious surplus. It just turns into various gunpowder and fireworks to be fired.

The army wanted to eat canned food, so the canned food factory in the farm meat plant had work to do.

Then mobilize in all aspects. Yang Hao did not adopt the strategy of wartime rationing, but controlled the normal production load efficiency of all factories, allowing workers to get wages and bonuses to produce operations as usual, so as to ensure that they have the spare energy to consume, and force the maintenance and expansion of industrial production capacity through consumption, and use military standards to force all factories to improve quality - if there is quality problems with military products, they will be beheaded.

The biggest flaw of doing this is that the large amount of military expenditure generated out of thin air is nowhere to be reimbursed. The Japanese are unwilling to pay compensation if they are killed, and they cannot find much oil and water if they win. They are destined to be a loss-making business. So Yang Hao repeatedly emphasized the need to control the scale of the war, and once it becomes too big, it will really become a burden.

How to grasp the intermediate scale is really a headache. Previously, Yang Hao plundered foreigners by selling industrial equipment and ship equipment, but the money he earned was spent in a few months of war. Seeing that the battle became more and more intense, it meant that military expenditures were rising sharply. It would definitely not be possible to rely solely on fiscal expenditures. We must find a next buyer to pay for this.

Turning back and finding out the problem Yan Fu was anxious and stared at Yang Hao and Hua Hengfang: "Is there no better way besides war? The war is too exhausted and the people are hurting money. Now that the military government is fully committed to the promotion of the revolution in the new district, it is already extremely difficult!"

As mentioned in the previous article, Yang Hao's version of land reform is a comprehensive promotion, and the initial investment is too great. On the big side, it is necessary to build railways and highways and dredge river channels, build dams to build farmland water conservancy systems, establish industrial new areas in key cities, and establish new cities as the center to expand the urban population scale; redefine agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery production, and carry out division of labor and collaborative industrialization operations.

This costs a lot of money. Among them, the necessary reinforced steel, cement, rail, locomotive, gunpowder for rock-burning is a big batch, and engineering agricultural machinery is another big batch. Just agricultural irrigation, farming, harvesting, threshing and crushing machinery is calculated in hundreds of thousands of sets.

In addition, the last two types of good varieties, pesticides, and fertilizers directly drive the chemical industry, and the initial investment must be recovered after the grain crops are produced. The problem is that in the late 19th century, traditional agricultural output was scary! Taking Shandong as an example, with a single acre yield of only 47 kilograms of wheat/70 kilograms of corn in the country. What is enough?

Comprehensively improve farmland water conservancy, implement a working model of division of labor and cooperation, adopt good varieties introduced (or robbed) from the United States and Japan, and vigorously invest in chemical fertilizers and pesticides, Shandong's grain yield has now doubled. The average yield per mu of wheat has reached about 170 kilograms, and the yield per mu of corn has reached about 250 kilograms, which is basically close to the level of this world in the 1980s.

(Before the 1980s, under the condition of severe lack of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, the role of good varieties was not outstanding. In the late Qing Dynasty, China had actually introduced good varieties. Typical examples are Mengjia, Jinxiutang, Jiujun Town, Zhangqiu County. In 1904, corn could reach 85-115 kilograms per mu, and wheat reached 100-115 kilograms, which was one and a half to twice the average harvest at that time. The highest Bijia, Shujingtang, Shujingtang, Zibo, had a wheat yield of 150 kilograms per mu.)

Food is the most important thing for people. Only when the people are full of food can the government be considered qualified for any country. Only by increasing the average yield of major crops through industrial construction can it be qualified to enter the field of industrial countries. Compared with the per capita share of steel and coal, the average yield of fertilizers, pesticides, wheat, corn, etc. is also indispensable indicators.

As for China, the number of yields of 200 kilograms per mu can generate a surplus of agricultural production, and then promote the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, and add marine fishing to reduce pure food consumption. Only with grain and fish, meat and eggs can people become stronger, have improved disease resistance and prolong their lifespan. Only with excess food can they get money to buy things, thereby promoting the consumption of industrial products and comprehensively driving the improvement of industrial production capacity.

This is a large system that is linked together, and the core is to solve the problems of agricultural-related industrialization, plus military-related industrialization, and establish a country through farming and war. This is what it means.

Industrial countries around the world are all sacrificing agriculture to concentrate their efforts on industrialization. It is not just China who has the scissors. Yang Hao played this game at the end of the 19th century. He could use the ten times profit margin between two time and space to promote it. Besides, the farmers these days have nothing to sacrifice. Those who make sacrifices are the local tyrants and evil gentry.

Now, in the face of Yan Fu's problem, he also has another solution.

"We will soon find the next one to pay for the money. In this world, the suckers are not just the foreigners of the great powers."

Yang Hao’s goal is the Philippines. (To be continued, please search for Piaotianwen, novels are better, updated and faster!
Chapter completed!