132, earning the hard-earned money of the old man(1/2)
After hearing Lauren say that the pound war was about to come to an end, Duca put down his work and began to read newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal and Fortune Magazine to pay attention to international financial news.
Since July, the European foreign exchange market has been filled with an atmosphere of fierce war.
The cause was the conflict between Germany and Britain.
The United Kingdom joined the European Monetary System in 1990. Its purpose was simple: to curb domestic inflation, lower prices, and stabilize the pound exchange rate.
After joining, the British achieved its goal. In two years, the British inflation rate dropped from 9.2% in May 1990 to 4.5% in May 1992.
However, if prices are too low, it will also lead to a downturn in the market economy, slow down development, and lead to a serious economic recession.
In July, the UK urgently needed to cut interest rates and release funds to stimulate the economy. However, after joining the European Monetary System, shopping and transactions in the UK can also be done in euros.
Lowering interest rates will lead to the depreciation of the pound and capital outflows from other euro zone countries. In serious cases, it will trigger a domestic financial and economic crisis.
So the United Kingdom asked Germany for help. The German mark is the strongest currency in the European monetary system. The United Kingdom hopes that Germany will also lower interest rates and share some of the pressure.
Of course Germany would not agree.
After the merger of East and West Germany in 1990, Germany was in a period of vigorous development and needed a large amount of funds for infrastructure construction. Raising interest rates could absorb a large amount of capital reserves.
Cutting interest rates would lead to a loss of funds in banks and lead to inflation. Therefore, instead of cutting interest rates, Germany raised the discount rate to 8.75% in mid-July 1992.
The discount rate is used by countries to adjust the money supply and interest rates to promote economic expansion or contraction. Increasing the discount rate will simply and indirectly lead to a reduction in the money supply and attract more reserve funds.
If the UK lowers interest rates at this time, the Bank of England's funds will flow directly to the German Bank, causing an economic crisis in the UK.
In this case, the UK has only two options: lower interest rates and allow the economic crisis to occur. The second option is to withdraw from the European monetary system and maintain the independence of the pound.
Although in July, the British Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer stated on various public occasions that the pound was still strong and had the ability to keep the pound within the European exchange rate system.
However, international hot money led by Soros saw that the pound was weak and was very likely to withdraw from the Euro system.
There are cracks in the Eurozone egg, and the biggest crack is the pound.
Therefore, starting in July, Quantum Fund and other venture capital investment groups began to buy a large amount of weak currencies such as the pound, Italian lira, and the Finnish mark, causing the pound to continue to appreciate in the foreign exchange market.
Currency appreciation will cause the price of imported goods to fall and the price of export goods to rise, thereby stimulating imports, inhibiting exports, reducing international trade surplus or even creating a deficit.
At the same time, it will also lead to a reduction in the scale of foreign investment, a reduction in exports by shipping companies, and increased domestic employment pressure.
In order to ensure economic stability, the British invested more than 10 billion US dollars in pounds in the foreign exchange market in order to maintain a stable pound exchange rate.
However, the international hot money spearheaded by Quantum Fund has long seen that the UK is providing strong support, so no matter how many pounds the Bank of England releases, international hot money eats up all of it.
It was at this time that Lauren invested nearly $100 million in multiple accounts in the foreign exchange market in preparation for shorting the pound.
In August, the German Bank announced a readjustment of the euro zone's exchange rate mechanism and stated that it would never raise interest rates.
From then on, international hot money began to smash the market like crazy, throwing away the pounds and lira in their hands, and buying marks. The exchange rate of pounds to marks fell from 2.95 to 2.85, and then from 2.85 to 2.79...
In order to maintain the exchange rate of the euro zone mark against the pound, Italian lira and other currencies, European central banks, led by the German Central Bank, began to continuously sell marks in the foreign exchange market and buy pounds and lira.
International hot money, however, united to confront the European banks, continued to short the weak currencies of the pound and the lira, and bought a large amount of marks.
According to the Wall Street Journal, from August to early September, the daily trading volume in the foreign exchange market exceeded 10 billion U.S. dollars, which was particularly crazy.
The current situation depends on which side has the better fundamentals. If the European central banks can maintain the exchange rate between the mark and the pound lira, then Europe will win and make a lot of money in the foreign exchange market.
If it cannot be maintained, international hot money will win, and everyone will drink and eat. The more people invest, the more they will win.
Duca put down the newspaper and thought quietly for a moment. He picked up the phone and called Lauren and told her his plan.
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"What? You want to add more funds to continue shorting the pound?!"
Lauren asked in surprise.
"Yes, how about playing with the big one?"
He previously invested 60 million U.S. dollars, which was entirely his existing capital flow. He planned to borrow 100 million U.S. dollars from Morgan Bank and continue to short the pound, that is, using leverage to speculate in stocks.
If he lost, he would probably be in debt worth tens of millions, but the Quantum Fund could have won in the first place. He was on the winning side and worked hard, so it would be difficult to lose.
"Duka, you have to think clearly. The situation is very tense right now. It's like a war of attrition on the battlefield. There are many capital investment groups that can't bear to leave the market early. I am the same now. I see the money in my account is constantly decreasing. Every day I
I can't sleep well, I can't eat, and my hands are shaking when I talk on the phone. Now you want to invest more, are you trying to kill me?"
Lauren gritted her teeth and said.
Duca curled up his lips, "You mean you can't handle so much money?"
"No, Duca, I advise you to be more sensible. You can't just impulsively invest more after reading a few newspapers that badmouth the British pound. Why don't you come to my place to feel the atmosphere before making a decision? Now I have more than 20 people under my command.
Traders are very nervous every day, and their faces are getting worse day by day. You can’t feel how nervous we are without being there.”
Lauren complained.
"I am the commander-in-chief. I don't need to know that. You just say whether it can be done? If not, I will find someone else."
Duka said calmly.
"....able!"
Lauren gritted her back molars and her breathing became rapid.
"But Duka, you have to be prepared for bankruptcy. Not only bankruptcy, you may even be saddled with a large amount of debt."
"I understand, but I'm not worried. I made 100 million last year, and I can do it this year too. You can do it with confidence."
Duca didn't care about the authenticity.
"Okay, you are the boss and I will listen to you."
Lauren hung up the phone.
Duca curled his lips. At this time, in Lauren's mind, he was probably like the kind of brainless commander who didn't know the cruelty of war.
Well, thinking about it carefully, it seems so.
So in order to prevent Lauren from disobeying the command, he planned to go to the scene to keep an eye on her in the past few days.
"Boss, these are the documents approved today. They are mainly the post-production cost report of "Immoral Deal", the secondary budget materials of "Black and White", and the producer of "Pulp Fiction" also handed over some materials. I need them.
You sign."
Secretary Yin Sabella came in holding a stack of documents and said.
"Where's Monica, take it to her and ask her to sign it."
Duca frowned.
Asabella smiled and said, "The president said that since you are in the company, you should do some work, otherwise staying in the office will be boring."
"Haha, okay, she will really find trouble for me."
Duka smiled and took the information.
I secretly made up my mind to go back and work overtime in the evening.
——
In early September, a war raged on in the European foreign exchange market, and the battle between European central banks and international hot money represented by Quantum Fund became intense.
On September 6, the exchange rate between the German mark and the British pound fell to 1 to 2.634, from 3.1 to 2.63, a drop of 15%. The situation was critical.
At this time, the Bank of England, the backbone of the British financial system, announced that it would invest US$26.9 billion in foreign exchange to purchase pounds of the same value. Other European banks also used the same method to purchase European currencies and maintain the lower limit of the currency exchange rates of various countries.
The European Central Bank has also successively sold more than 20 billion US dollars in Marks to ensure that the exchange rate of the Mark against other European currencies is stable.
After the Bank of England and the European Central Bank took full action, international hot money in the foreign exchange market encountered difficulties. It either continued to add capital or lost the battle.
The two sides reached a stalemate.
International capital investment groups participating in this exchange rate war are also in trouble, and many have announced their withdrawal.
Within two days of the stalemate, on September 8, the situation changed. The domestic economic situation of the small European country Finland deteriorated, the Finnish mark plummeted, and the Finnish government announced a self-rescue and decoupled from the German mark.
International Hot Money won a small victory, but morale was boosted and everyone concentrated their efforts to launch an attack like the Italian Lira.
In less than four days, Italy's exchange rate plummeted. In one day, it plummeted by 7 points, and the exchange rate against the mark fell by 23%, approaching the lower limit of the linked exchange rates of European countries.
Italy is an important economic power in the Eurozone. The Italian lira exchange rate plummeted, causing an earthquake in the international foreign exchange market.
At the same time, this is also a signal that international hot money is about to win.
As a result, more international capital poured into the European exchange rate market, and international speculators followed suit by shorting weak currencies in the Eurozone such as the pound and lira. According to data from the Wall Street Journal, the total amount of shorted currency capital in European countries reached more than 150 billion U.S. dollars.
The situation was critical, and the strength was changing. The German Central Bank immediately announced an interest rate cut, and the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and others also announced that they would mobilize more foreign exchange to actively save the European monetary system and ensure that those black-hearted capital would not succeed.
But the snowball grew bigger and bigger, almost forming an avalanche. At this time, it was too late to take action.
From September 15th to 16th, European central banks injected 17 billion pounds of funds to support the pound, but to no avail.
On the 16th, the ratio of the pound to the mark fell to 1:2.52 marks, and the ratio of the pound to the US dollar fell to 1:1.738 US dollars, the lowest level in history.
The European Central Bank is unable to maintain a fixed exchange rate range between the mark and the pound.
On the evening of September 16, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer announced that the United Kingdom would withdraw from the European Monetary System, and international speculators won a big victory.
Duca also won a great victory.
The next day he received a call from Lauren.
To be continued...